KK river situation 3-handed

[sy_or_bust]

Hopefully this isn't too hard. Just checking up on my overcall theory.

MP3 is a LAG. Once he calls the river, he is saying "I don't have AA".
Button is super passive! On a previous hand he open-completed/called-down with 99 on an undercard board heads-up after I raised preflop. His AF is miniscule.

The turn 3-bet is very weird. Button would certainly coldcall 23s and AA preflop, but he might play this way without the nuts too - I don't know him well enough.

On the river Button has 1 BB left after his raise. Since Button is capable of the nuts and I think MP3 will fold everything save perhaps AK when I 3-bet, is my river play best?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img],K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">BB folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 Hero) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(10 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(10 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls.

River: (15.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(10 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 21.50 BB

[PTjvs]

I completely disagree with yoru river play, and here is why:

Hero bets, MP3 raises, Button 3-bets, Hero caps

With this turn line, Button is saying he has you beat on the turn, when you know he doesn't, so you can't consider it possible Button is ahead. MP3 is willing to raise the turn &amp; cold call the cap on the turn after raising preflop. The odds of losing him for 2 more on the river aren't that high, and by reraising, you are gaurenteed to get the last bet from Button. Going for the overcall here has absolutely no reward.

jvs

[krimson]

I'm not so sure that I agree that MP3 will fold to a re-raise here. He has already put a bet in on the river, and has called everything so far. His raise on the turn indicates he has a hand and he is likely looking to showdown.

Another plus to raising is that the button only has 1 BB left, so he can't cap on you when your behind. I think we're ahead more often than not here against 2-pair (trying to get the rest of his chips in) or a smaller set. he might even just have top pair and is stacking off.

I think a raise is +ev.

[sy_or_bust]

This is what I've been agonizing over. Looking closely, MP3 cannot have a strong hand AND a good redraw when the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is on board and the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is in my hand. So his turn call and first river call means he holds AK or is an idiot, and both times he pays 2 more to show down.

Button's 3-bet is still really scary and completely out of nowhere (it is a mistake to assume I am always good here), but I'm pretty sure I misjudged the situation with MP3 and should have raised.

In similar situations I'm sure this is the right play, but not when holding such a strong hand with MP3 apparantly pot-committed - this is what I missed. If anyone still likes a call, please say so - I'm not an expert on fishy 3-bets and LAG river play.