Ever wonder why 2+2 is going downhill?

[dogmeat]

Alright, the original thread on this subject was this:

It's a $50/$100 game online.

MP1 raises and is 23/11
MP2 reraises and is 22/9

Player with JJ folds. Is this the right move?

I did not consider the OP's options to include cold calling. I considered only a cap or a fold.

I know nothing about the rest of the table, but guessed that there would not be any callers if the JJ hand capped.

If JJ caps, he assumes that the original raiser will call, and the reraiser would have raised with hands that will include AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, as well as AK. Also assume that these are the hands that the first raiser will hold.

Given this information, the times that these hands hit (very roughly - disregarding whether any of these are mutually exclusive) in 1000 is:

AA 5x, KK 5x, QQ 5x, JJ 2.5x, TT 5x, AK 9x.

JJ wins 45% of the time when both opponents hold TT, and AK (14 times). JJ wins 24% of the time when both hold a small pair or JJ (2.5 times). JJ wins 18% of the time when either opponent holds AA,KK, or QQ (15 times). If the pot becomes $1850 by the end, with JJ putting in $600 each hand, and this rough math assumes 31.5 hands, then it costs $18,900 to play, and returns $17,800. Clearly folding is a better option.

If, however, I can add 99 to a possible hand of the reraiser, then I can expect to win $1100.

So, I can either lose $1100 or win $1100. I don't see a difference between either capping or folding.

Now if I think the raisers will raise with even weaker hands, then I certainly want to cap. I probably get enough extra income to also make this a cap instead of a fold if I am pretty sure I will pick up another caller.

I'm done.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[TStoneMBD]

i hate it when i see good posters say stuff like "its too close to matter" or "i dont think either action will affect your winrate much". saying stuff like that just means that you dont know what the right play/frequency is or how to logically come to a conclusion.

[B Dids]

[ QUOTE ]
i hate it when i see good posters say stuff like "its too close to matter" or "i dont think either action will affect your winrate much". saying stuff like that just means that you dont know what the right play/frequency is or how to logically come to a conclusion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or it means that given that there's always other mitigating factors, that there simply isn't a "right" answer.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]

JJ wins 45% of the time when both opponents hold TT, and AK (14 times). JJ wins 24% of the time when both hold a small pair or JJ (2.5 times). JJ wins 18% of the time when either opponent holds AA,KK, or QQ (15 times). If the pot becomes $1850 by the end, with JJ putting in $600 each hand, and this rough math assumes 31.5 hands, then it costs $18,900 to play, and returns $17,800. Clearly folding is a better option.

If, however, I can add 99 to a possible hand of the reraiser, then I can expect to win $1100.

So, I can either lose $1100 or win $1100. I don't see a difference between either capping or folding.


[/ QUOTE ]


right, because the game is played preflop. nothing happens postflop. plus, your numbers arent even right. plus if you think those are their ranges in middle position, youre out of your mind

MP1- AKs-A9s, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo, AA-77
MP2- AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo, AA-88

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.6577 % 25.47% 01.19% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 34.9239 % 33.62% 01.30% { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 38.4184 % 37.68% 00.74% { JcJd }

[dogmeat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

JJ wins 45% of the time when both opponents hold TT, and AK (14 times). JJ wins 24% of the time when both hold a small pair or JJ (2.5 times). JJ wins 18% of the time when either opponent holds AA,KK, or QQ (15 times). If the pot becomes $1850 by the end, with JJ putting in $600 each hand, and this rough math assumes 31.5 hands, then it costs $18,900 to play, and returns $17,800. Clearly folding is a better option.

If, however, I can add 99 to a possible hand of the reraiser, then I can expect to win $1100.

So, I can either lose $1100 or win $1100. I don't see a difference between either capping or folding.


[/ QUOTE ]


right, because the game is played preflop. nothing happens postflop. plus, your numbers arent even right. plus if you think those are their ranges in middle position, youre out of your mind

MP1- AKs-A9s, KQs-KTs, QJs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KJo, AA-77
MP2- AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo, AA-88

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 26.6577 % 25.47% 01.19% { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+ }
Hand 2: 34.9239 % 33.62% 01.30% { 88+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 38.4184 % 37.68% 00.74% { JcJd }

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you for your response Josh. I'm afraid that my feeble mind can only think as far as it did when I am in the middle of a hand. I guess now that you have explained it to me, I have my answer, which is all I was asking in the first place - to be enlighteened as to why my belief that a fold or cap would return the same in the long run was apparantly incorrect.

FWIW, your statement that I must be out of my mind was less helpful, except to reenforce my feelings about moderators here.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[stoxtrader]

it looks like you are assigning the same range to the initial raiser and the re-raiser.

is that correct?

[UATrewqaz]

I didn't know you wanted actual discussion of the hand....

I will agree this is a definite cap or fold situation the answer being read dependent, if htey are maniacs/very laggy then its a cap, if sane players then fold.

Do your calculations involve what you will do if a lone ace or king falls? You figure you have to fold if one of them bets as AK now has you beat.

Are you thinking in terms of implied odds in the case both of them are holding AA/KK/QQ and you flop a J and get mucho bets in?

And then you have the VERY complicated situation if the flop comes

A/J/x

Then you may pay out the ass to AA (same story with a K/J/x flop).

[goofball]

if you think 2p2 is going down hill the way to fix it is to make coherent strategy posts as best and as often as you can. The way to make it worse is to make threads about 2p2 going downhill.

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
if you think 2p2 is going down hill the way to fix it is to make coherent strategy posts as best and as often as you can. The way to make it worse is to make threads about 2p2 going downhill.

[/ QUOTE ]