EV of open-ended + flush draw

[ZManODS]

Say you are on the turn with 3 other oppenents and are last to act. Also lets say you have the good fortune of having an open-ended draw plus a flush draw (15 outs .85:1). If the first person bets and the other 2 oppenents call should you raise for value here?

How bout with only 2 other oppenents. Basically what i am asking is whether this move is +EV and if not, how many people do you need to have to make it +EV.

My thinking: I think with 2 oppenents a raise becomes +EV because you are getting 2:1 on all bets on the turn (if 2 other oppenents) when you are only a 1:1 shot. Is this correct?

[Ghazban]

On the turn, you're not a 1:1 shot. On the flop, you are about even money (a little better, actually) to hit one of your 15 outs with 2 cards to come. With 46 unseen cards left after the turn has been dealt, you are 31:15 (~2:1) to hit one of your outs on the river.

I think you'd be more likely to get the mathematical analysis you're looking for if you posted the question in the probability forum.

[ZManODS]

Oh im so dumb, you are actually a ~2:07:1 dog. So with 3 oppenents, it because +EV right?

[Ghazban]

Well, it depends on how much is in the pot, how much the original bet is, how much you plan on raising by, whether or not you can get more money or bluff effectively on the river, and how deep the stacks involved are. Furthermore, you can't guarantee that all the people calling the original bet will also call your raise. One of them could also come over the top (probably the original raiser, but you never know if someone behind him is playing second-hand low). Honestly, I think there are too many variables here to definitely say whether or not its +EV or -EV.

[mannika]

Don't know if I'm completely missing something here, but with an open ended straight (15 outs), you are the favourite at the flop. Therefore, it is +EV to get money in the pot regardless of how many players are in there, or any other considerations. Keep in mind this assumes that the opponents do not have a higher straight or flush draw.

[mannika]

Just as a followup, I think the ideal play here on the turn is not just to raise, but to raise all-in. This lets you possibly take down the pot right there, and also get rid of any higher flush or straight draws. The only people who will call here are those with already made hands, and you are a favorite against those hands at the flop.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Just as a followup, I think the ideal play here on the turn is not just to raise, but to raise all-in. This lets you possibly take down the pot right there, and also get rid of any higher flush or straight draws. The only people who will call here are those with already made hands, and you are a favorite against those hands at the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushing the turn when you miss is not the way you want to play this. You're a favorite over a TPTK/overpair type hand on the flop despite being behind at that moment but, when you miss on the turn, you are no longer a favorite. If you have folding equity, pushing the turn isn't horrible due to your large number of outs but, if you know you will be called, pushing the turn is -EV.

[mannika]

[ QUOTE ]

Pushing the turn when you miss is not the way you want to play this. You're a favorite over a TPTK/overpair type hand on the flop despite being behind at that moment but, when you miss on the turn, you are no longer a favorite. If you have folding equity, pushing the turn isn't horrible due to your large number of outs but, if you know you will be called, pushing the turn is -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, my mistake, I meant to say push on the flop.

[BobboFitos]

Sorta a vague question, but it's a good one.

Here's the thing. If the original bettor is aggressive, and will fire on the turn, (and a hefty size bet) then it's better to get money in with 2 cards to come, rather then have everyone donate nice money into a pot you're the favorite to win, only to fold when you no longer have odds to draw with 1 card. So that promotes raising.

That said, if the original raiser will reraise you, and thereby shutoff the inbetween guys, you are a favorite over the original raiser, but you lost 2 potential contributors to the pot. (And you want as many people in as possible, unless they happen to be drawing for a better flush) So this promotes calling.

In general (and of course, stack size matters) but if every has ~100 bbs, and everyone limped, (so pot like 5bb in this instance with 3 opponents) and original raiser bets pot, then the pot has 20bbs, if you raise it to 25, for example, and the original raiser goes all in, (shutting off the others) then we'll say final pot has 215 bets, with you at a pot equity of ~55%. (Which is approx 15 outs twice over, assuming no knowledge of whether he has your suits/etc.) So your pot equity in this situation would be 55% of +115 (63.25) and 45% of -100 (-45) for 18.25. Surely we can do better.

If you call, so the pot has 25bb, and the turn comes a blank, then the original bettor fires 25, if the two in the middle fold, you have pot odds to call, but this isn't so great, either. If the opponents in the middle call, this is what you wanted. I'm not going to do the numbers because the % vary according to whether or not opponents in the middle call.

So, I guess you should raise for value if:
a. The original bettor wont move in. (player dependant)
b. If you miss you can get a free river with your opponent(s) checking to you.
c. They wont put you on a draw, and are able to extract the rest if you DO hit the turn or river.

Just call if:
a. The original raiser will shut off the pot to the players in the middle
b. You're SURE no one is drawing to a higher flush
c. Being last to act, if you hit, you can trap the players in the middle if the original raiser bets again, and the players in the middle call.

Hope that helps!