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#1
10-28-2004, 10:18 AM
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EV of open-ended + flush draw
Say you are on the turn with 3 other oppenents and are last to act. Also lets say you have the good fortune of having an open-ended draw plus a flush draw (15 outs .85:1). If the first person bets and the other 2 oppenents call should you raise for value here?
How bout with only 2 other oppenents. Basically what i am asking is whether this move is +EV and if not, how many people do you need to have to make it +EV. My thinking: I think with 2 oppenents a raise becomes +EV because you are getting 2:1 on all bets on the turn (if 2 other oppenents) when you are only a 1:1 shot. Is this correct? 
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#2
10-28-2004, 10:22 AM
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Re: EV of open-ended + flush draw
Hey Z-Guy,
Depends on the likelihood of the bettor to 3-bet and of the callers calling one more bet and two more bets. Also depends on which cards are suited for you. If there was decent flop action, the higher the suited cards the more apt you should be to raise if it's close, reason being you have more flush outs versus the more likely two pair hands. GoT
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#3
10-28-2004, 10:26 AM
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mistake
I figured that you would be a 1:1 to win thats actually incorrect as that is your odds from the flop to the river. On the turn you are actually a 2:1 dog so it would be +EV with 3 or more oppenents, right?
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#4
10-28-2004, 10:39 AM
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Re: mistake
On the turn you are actually a 2:1 dog so it would be +EV with 3 or more oppenents, right?
As long as you will on average be getting better than 2:1 on your money and you have very little dimished flush outs, yes. This won't necessarily mean that all 3 opponents have to call your raise all the time. Learn to think about all poker situations probabilistically. In this case, think along these lines: If 75% of the time all 3 call, 10% of the time only 2 call, and 15% of the time the bettor 3-bets, which 20% of the time both other players cold-call, 50% of the time exactly one calls, and 30% of the time both fold, then on average I'm getting 2.789:1 on my money, which is good enough to raise assuming I have at least 12.2 outs on average. Poker is completely probabilistic. GoT
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#5
10-28-2004, 10:49 AM
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Re: EV of open-ended + flush draw
When I'm in this situation (closing the action w/ position) and its close.. I tend to just call.. in hopes that I can raise the field on the river when I make my hand. This may be tougher when you hit the flush, but fairly common when you hit the straight. I think you sacrifice a little EV on the turn for more EV (on average) when you hit. It also decreases your variance.
I'd have to break out some math to verify my conclusions, which I've yet to do [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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