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  #11  
Old 03-12-2004, 02:21 PM
CrisBrown CrisBrown is offline
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Default Re: Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa

Hi Doc,

[ QUOTE ]
If you really believe in luck, or poker gods, or rabbits feet, or bad beats, or etc, and have any real intention of winning, you probably shouldn’t be gambling. People complain about having a bad (multiple choice) hand, game, week, month, etc. The fundamental problem here is that the human psyche just is not normally up to waiting out a true statistical sample. We get frustrated when a few hands, or games, or weeks don’t go our way. A statistical sample on which we can evaluate our skill, luck, lack of either, etc is NOT one game, 20 games, even 100 games, and certainly not the maybe 1000 hands that we played this week.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100%, and that's why I said I don't think I'm the world's unluckiest poker player, or anything close to it. Swings happen. The idea is to win more in your good swings than you lose in your bad ones, and to be ahead of the game when things are running "average."

One of the things I do when things are running like this is to drop down in stakes. I hate losing, period, but this at least minimizes the financial hit. I know I'll win back the money I've lost this week, once I've taken some time away from playing, let those negative feelings wash away, and can go back to playing my game well.

But all of that is intellectual knowledge, and it doesn't change the emotional response. Even the best players in the world -- and I'm certainly nowhere in that category -- can get emotionally rocky when things are running bad. I'm certainly not immune to it, and I don't think anyone else here is either. We all know bad swings happen to everyone, but when they happen to you ... they still hurt.

I was watching a friend play last night, chatting with her on the phone, and someone's AA lost to TT when a T fell on the flop. The player with AA typed "unbelievable," and my friend agreed. I said "Is it 'unbelievable' when you roll a six-sided die and it comes up 6?" She said no, that was not unbelievable, nor even unusual. "Well," I said, "that is what just happened with the AA vs. TT hand. TT will win one time in six."

The difference, though, is emotional investment. When you get AA, though, from the moment you see those cards pop up, you start looking at your stack and other people's stacks, figuring out where you'll stand in the tournament after you win this pot. You're investing emotion in that hand.

My friend will often say (on the phone, to me) "Oh please, somebody, raise." She's already investing in that hand. Then, when someone pushes in ahead of her, the investment gets even greater: AA, and she's getting the action she wants. But then that damn Ten (or whatever) falls ... and all of that emotional investment goes down the tubes. It's not the one-in-six unlikely outcome that hurts; it's the lost emotional investment.

(As an aside, I think this is why getting outdrawn at the river hurts worse than getting outdrawn at the flop; we've had more time to make a greater emotional investment.)

Now, I suppose it's possible that some among us are Spock-like, emotionless creatures, but I doubt it. Yes, after a while, you're used to seeing the one-in-X hit, and you try not to get as emotionally invested in a hand. But I think it's still there, and it still hurts.

And I suspect that, by and large, when people post a truly bad beat story here, they're really not looking to hear how they played the hand fine and got outdrawn, or whatever. That may be the text of the response they hope to hear, but I suspect the subtext is something else entirely. At some level, they want to hear: "No, it's not you. You are not uniquely cursed. There are no poker gods out to get you. You're not being punished for some imagined sin. You just lost a hand of cards. That's all."

Because, for all of the logic and mathematics, when it comes to our emotions, we're all primitive creatures.

Cris
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  #12  
Old 03-12-2004, 03:25 PM
DrPhysic DrPhysic is offline
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Default Re: Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa

Cris,
You know I am a friend and am certainly not picking on you with my post. I do understand the emotional involvement in a hand and in a game, and hurts when you're having a lousy week.

All I'm saying is stand back far enough to give yourself a little longer view. You are a good player, and the fact that you're having a lousy week does not imply that you'll have a lousy month. Give yourself a chance. The cards will swing your way soon enough, and then you can make it back and then some.

Doc [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
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  #13  
Old 03-12-2004, 03:59 PM
CrisBrown CrisBrown is offline
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Default Re: Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa

Hi Doc,

I didn't feel as if you were picking on me. No worries. And no, this doesn't mean I'll have a bad month, or a bad year, or anything else. It's just a bad swing, and those do happen to everyone. However, I do think it's better if I take a week or so off -- except for the 2pm WPT Super on Saturday, for which I'm already registered -- and try to clear the negative emotions.

Because when those negative emotions are dominating my thoughts, I'm not a good player, and I will keep losing. Not because of I'll keep getting bad luck, but because I'll start (or continue) to make impatient, desperation plays.

Cris
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  #14  
Old 03-12-2004, 06:14 PM
DrPhysic DrPhysic is offline
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Default Re: Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa

How about a quick SNG on Wednesday so Stoneii and I can take advantage of you while you're on tilt?

Doc [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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  #15  
Old 03-12-2004, 09:43 PM
William William is offline
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Default Re: Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa

I am also going to post a bad beat story, so you can see that we are all unlucky every now and then.

Last Saturday in Sweden, PLHE, blinds 10/20 9 players deep money (most of the players have over 5k in front of them)

I am at the button and am dealt AA.UTG open/raises the pot. When it is my turn to act, 5 players have limped in. I raise the pot and get one caller, UTG who is a very loose player and is stucked big time and on tilt.
Flop 6 3 3 rainbow. I bet around 800$ and get called.
Turn 7, suit not important. i bet 2k and get raised 2k (all-in); I call.
River 8, suit not important; table now 33678 .UTG shows 54us for the straight on the turn.

My math says this one counts for 200 bad beats at the 30$ SNGs [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Anyway, for those who are worried about the financial aspect of the story, 3 Hours later I broke even and quited for the evening (phew)

Take care,
William
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  #16  
Old 03-13-2004, 04:38 AM
CrisBrown CrisBrown is offline
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Default Re: Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa

Hi William,

Thanks for your reply, because I always wonder about this particular situation: where I had a huge advantage, but had been outdrawn and was all but dead when the time the money went in. I never know whether to look at this as a tough beat, or whether I should have known I'd been outdrawn by the texture of the board.

With this board, for example, at the turn your AA was behind to 3x, 66, 77, or 54. It's all but impossible to dodge the 66 or 77; if he's flopped a set, he's going to get a nice pot from a big pair. But both the paired board and the straight draw were visible.

I don't know that I'd have played the hand any differently. With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, it's easy to see that, with a paired board and a straight draw, it's hard to call an all-in reraise. In the heat of a game, though, I don't know that I'd have given him credit for that hand, or not often enough that the pot odds would not justify my calling in case he's bluffing. You were at the table, reading the player, and you'd read him for being on serious tilt, so it's hard to give him credit for a hand in those circumstances.

Anyway, I'm glad you bounced back and made up the loss. I plan to do that next week. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Cris
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  #17  
Old 03-13-2004, 04:39 AM
CrisBrown CrisBrown is offline
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Default Re: Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa

Hi Doc,

I'll probably be back to playing by then, and hopefully I won't still be tilting. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Cris
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  #18  
Old 03-13-2004, 10:19 AM
DrPhysic DrPhysic is offline
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Default Re: Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa

Cris,
Happens to all of us. Sat AM $10 PLHE on Stars:
I have T800 early 2nd hour, avg ~T3000, need to do something:
draw 22,
EP bets hard 300?, I push the stack.
He has KJ.
Believe it or not, he draws 789T
Next Game!

Doc

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  #19  
Old 03-13-2004, 05:02 PM
Al_Capone_Junior Al_Capone_Junior is offline
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Default logic and reason is but 1/20 of the totality of man (NM)

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  #20  
Old 03-13-2004, 08:18 PM
DrPhysic DrPhysic is offline
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Default And the other 19/20ths is...

where the blood went right before you blacked out?
Then why do women go on tilt too?

Just thought I'd ask.

Doc
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