AQo in the CO

[PrayingMantis]

2-tables 22$ SNG, last 8, 4 get paid. I'm 5th w/1725. Blinds 100/200.

UTG folds, UTG+1, short-stack w/485, goes all-in. Can do it with many hands, as he's desperate and loose. He's probably on an Ax, Kx. Could be small pair or trash. Folded to me in the CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Button is w/4860, very very loose player, calls a lot, big raises too. SB is w/6340, solid player, BB is w/705.

What is my move?

To complicate it: I pretty much know that button will call an all-in by me, with any pocket-pair, or, say, A6 and above, probably KQ, KJ, KT too.

Any thoughts?

[OneStuckFish]

I would move all in over the top.

[PrayingMantis]

I pushed, and button over-called with 88. Blinds folded. UTG+1 showed AK. Unlucky for me.

Board: A-Q-K-8-3...

Button busted both of us with his set.

I was wandering about this hand, because I knew button was bad enough to over-call with many hands, so this was not a regular isolation situation. You can't easily isolate when there's a calling-station at you left, who has you covered.

And after I busted, I had some second thoughts about this move, although I'm pretty sure it's the best.

PrayingMantis

[Moonsugar]

If you KNOW the button will call, I think you should fold. The problem is you are likely to lose to the combination of both players. So, most likely out come has 2 endings: a) you lose everything, or b) you lose 485.

With a different button I think it is an easy all in.

You are in a tough spot in this tourney due to the seating [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
If you KNOW the button will call, I think you should fold. The problem is you are likely to lose to the combination of both players. So, most likely out come has 2 endings: a) you lose everything, or b) you lose 485.

With a different button I think it is an easy all in.


[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't positively know he will call, but as I said, I had a good enough read of him to assume he will call with any pocket-pair, almost any A, and some other holdings too. That's close to 20% of the time, if I'm not wrong, and I'll be a favorite most of the time, and a coin-flip some of the time.

I think this is still a pretty much +CEV push, with some low percentage of risk, maybe around 6% of busting to the button, over-all. So, even with this calling station to my left, I don't think it is a fold.

PrayingMantis

[prairieboy]

I think that going all-in was the correct move. Had there been fewer players remaining, or your stack larger, I might argue for a fold. Here, I vote for all-in.

Given that the short stack is likely raising light, and the BB will call light, you'll have the best hand more often than not starting out, and will likely be dominating at least one of their Ax hands. Who knows, you may even get the BB to fold.

If you win the hand, you more than double up.

If the short stack beats you, but you beat the BB, you come out of the hand ahead.

If the BB beats you, you're done.

Overall, I think the potential gain (eliminate short stack, double up +) is worth the risk.

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
think that going all-in was the correct move. Had there been fewer players remaining, or your stack larger, I might argue for a fold. Here, I vote for all-in.

Given that the short stack is likely raising light, and the BB will call light, you'll have the best hand more often than not starting out, and will likely be dominating at least one of their Ax hands. Who knows, you may even get the BB to fold.

If you win the hand, you more than double up.

If the short stack beats you, but you beat the BB, you come out of the hand ahead.

If the BB beats you, you're done.

Overall, I think the potential gain (eliminate short stack, double up +) is worth the risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that by BB you meant button. But otherwise, I agree with you on what you say. That's my reasoning too.

PrayingMantis