minimum buy in- post->push->leave

MissOt · #1 08-03-2005, 01:28 AM

ok im a winning player and all, but i was just wondering if it was possible or +ev to make money like this. say you would buy in at 1/2 for the min ($40) and post the blind and push the first hand then leave the table whether folded, win, or lose.

can anyone calculate how many times you would need them to fold for it to be +ev or if the whole play is a winning play or not.

since its 1/2 they are probably only calling with AA-TT(i probably fold JJ/TT and def AQ) and AK maybe AQ. everytime you push you pick up the blinds and maybe some limpers money. how many times do they have to fold or you have to pick up a hand or suck out before the play becomes +ev if it even is.

if you are properly rolled and you dont have a reputation of doing this, i think that you can win money by doing this. i dont know the math, but i was wondering if somebody could get an idea if its +ev or not

edit: what about 6 max? and posting on CO instead of BB or other spots

also if this does work, could it work at higher limits and even make a decent $/HR?

emp1346 · #2 08-03-2005, 01:54 AM

i'm just gonna take a real quick stab at this... and this is for posting on the BB, and assuming an average (on a six person table) of 1.5 limpers... also assuming players will only call with the hands you specified...

i'd say (based on some real loose calculations run on my phone calculator) that you would have an EV of approximately $5-$6...

then again, i've been wrong before... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

jba · #3 08-03-2005, 10:53 AM

this question is impossible to answer.

In order to calculate EV we need some idea of how much money we are winning. How much money will be in the pot, how many players, when you make this move? some tables the usual action will be one limper, one raise and then it's to you, maybe $12 in the pot. sometimes typical action is 6 limpers to you....this is dangerous obviously -- less money in the pot and more players to find a calling hand. maniac table maybe you get raise to 10 reraise to 25 and here you are all in without a real raise.

see what I mean?

and I'm pretty sure you need some more rules to make this EV+. like how to respond to raises. the concept you are after is similar to the system from sklansky's tournament book, I think, check that out.

kyro · #4 08-03-2005, 06:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i'm just gonna take a real quick stab at this... and this is for posting on the BB, and assuming an average (on a six person table) of 1.5 limpers... also assuming players will only call with the hands you specified...

i'd say (based on some real loose calculations run on my phone calculator) that you would have an EV of approximately $5-$6...

then again, i've been wrong before... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I highly doubt this is +EV.

emp1346 · #5 08-04-2005, 05:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'm just gonna take a real quick stab at this... and this is for posting on the BB, and assuming an average (on a six person table) of 1.5 limpers... also assuming players will only call with the hands you specified...

i'd say (based on some real loose calculations run on my phone calculator) that you would have an EV of approximately $5-$6...

then again, i've been wrong before... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I highly doubt this is +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

i highly doubt it's +EV myself... all the more reason I'd like to see this really answered... not so much so I can go do it or anything, but more so that I can learn how to solve it...

edit: as for how to respond to raises, I was going with a basic rule that even with a raise the all-in move is made... and for the sake of a bit of simplicity that the raises were only being made with the aforementioned hands...

Pokerlogist · #6 08-04-2005, 10:11 AM

Interesting. Heres's a quick and dirty analysis.

A premium hand, AA-JJ,AKs,AK is dealt about 3 times per 100 hands. So you would expect somebody to have one at about one of every three 10-player tables. So lets assume you get called about 1/3 of the time. The collective win rate of the premium hands against random hands is 75%. So in theory 2/3 of time you would win the blinds plus the bets of some limper(s) or small raisers. 1/4 of the time you lose your stack of $40, and .08 of the time you beat the premium hand, winning you stack plus the blinds plus any stray limpers, lets say that is $40+$3+$2=$45. Let EV=.67(x)+.25(-40 loss)+.08(+45)=0,where x=min. amount you need to win when all fold. Here x=$6.4. So you would need to have on average of 2 limpers ($4) in additon to the blinds ($3) when you win uncontested pots to make it a profitable strategy. That doesn’t sound too unreasonable. Things can get seriously sticky if people start calling with lesser hands. They would this do if the pot were raised enough or if they were simply looser players. Then your plan could easily become –EV [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]. On the other hand, you might be able to improve the plan a bit by waiting for a better hand or a good limp situation before the push. Of course, then it becomes a step closer to real poker, and you have to think a little [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. You might like to read the discussion of Miller’s short stack system posted somewhere here.

If you give it a try, let us know what happens.

emp1346 · #7 08-04-2005, 01:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting. Heres's a quick and dirty analysis.

A premium hand, AA-JJ,AKs,AK is dealt about 3 times per 100 hands. So you would expect somebody to have one at about one of every three 10-player tables. So lets assume you get called about 1/3 of the time. The collective win rate of the premium hands against random hands is 75%. So in theory 2/3 of time you would win the blinds plus the bets of some limper(s) or small raisers. 1/4 of the time you lose your stack of $40, and .08 of the time you beat the premium hand, winning you stack plus the blinds plus any stray limpers, lets say that is $40+$3+$2=$45. Let EV=.67(x)+.25(-40 loss)+.08(+45)=0,where x=min. amount you need to win when all fold. Here x=$6.4. So you would need to have on average of 2 limpers ($4) in additon to the blinds ($3) when you win uncontested pots to make it a profitable strategy. That doesn’t sound too unreasonable. Things can get seriously sticky if people start calling with lesser hands. They would this do if the pot were raised enough or if they were simply looser players. Then your plan could easily become –EV [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]. On the other hand, you might be able to improve the plan a bit by waiting for a better hand or a good limp situation before the push. Of course, then it becomes a step closer to real poker, and you have to think a little [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. You might like to read the discussion of Miller’s short stack system posted somewhere here.

If you give it a try, let us know what happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is along the lines of how i went about figuring it out, with different general numbers and probabilities (i think) but the same concept, also considering win / loss rates versus premium hands...

so... if people only call with the hands designated by the OP, then yes, this is +EV?

come on, someone has to be able to prove this is -EV given only the hands denominated above... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

TomCollins · #8 08-04-2005, 06:02 PM

People will call with lesser hands.

MissOt · #9 08-05-2005, 01:28 AM

if people are calling with lesser hands, what about higher limits then?

gonepunting · #10 08-05-2005, 03:32 AM

I think this analysis is correct. This move is +EV and if you find a late position seat and only do this when there are one or more limpers this would improve the strategy further. Say this happens 80% of time, so 20% of time you end up playing your hand which should only be a loss of half a big blind on average.
It's a bit like putting in a big raise on a number of limpers out of the big blind when playing NL. This move also has a high chance of success (Harrington discusses this).
However I think there are other considerations which make it a dubious strategy.
Good players will notice that you are doing it and make notes, or you might start showing up in pokertracker with a PFR of 90%!
The fact that it is your first hand makes it a bit more likely that it is a random push as a opposed a genuine hand and you might run in to lower calling standards.