Finish Distributions

Taraz · #1 07-22-2005, 06:42 AM

How many SNGs do I need to play before I can get a reliable finish distribution? I've been getting a few more 2nd place finishes than 1st and 3rd place finishes although I don't think I'm playing too tightly when I get ITM. Also I'm slightly worried that I'm finishing in 5th twice and often as I am finishing in 4th. Should I worry if I've only played 286 at the 22s and 33s and my finish distribution is the following?

Total Tourneys played: 286
ITM: 39.16%
ROI: 19.71%

1st - 35 - 12.24%
2nd - 46 - 16.08%
3rd - 31 - 10.84%
4th - 20 - 6.99%
5th - 39 - 13.64%
6th - 31 - 10.84%
7th - 34 - 11.89%
8th - 23 - 8.04%
9th - 11 - 3.85%
10th - 16 - 5.59%

tshort · #2 07-22-2005, 06:59 AM

From your data (albeit the smallish sample), it could be tight bubble and ITM play causing your high 2nds low 4ths. It could be your heads up play. It could be variance. I have more 1sts then 2nds and more 3rds then 2nds.

At your distribution (12, 16 11) you profit about $22.3 per tourney ITM ($33s). If your distribution were (16, 10, 13), you would profit $23.9 per tourney ITM.

unreal_nh · #3 07-22-2005, 07:54 AM

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I have more 1sts then 2nds and more 3rds then 2nds.

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well woopty doo...

to the op, i think the stats are perfectly fine, nothing to worry about... although the sample is a little small. looks good. good job.

Uppercut · #4 07-22-2005, 01:13 PM

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Also I'm slightly worried that I'm finishing in 5th twice as often as I am finishing in 4th.

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I don't understand. Don't they both pay out the same? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Isura · #5 07-22-2005, 02:10 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
I have more 1sts then 2nds and more 3rds then 2nds.

[/ QUOTE ]

well woopty doo...

to the op, i think the stats are perfectly fine, nothing to worry about... although the sample is a little small. looks good. good job.

[/ QUOTE ]

Over a short sample like 300 games we can't draw much conclusions. But if you are saying that this finish distribution is desirable, I strongly disagree.

valenzuela · #6 07-22-2005, 02:17 PM

WTF!!!!!!! 20% ROI not desirable??? u disagree?? WTF.

#7 07-22-2005, 04:51 PM

The swings in SNG tournaments results are very big. I tried to calculate standard deviation for your case using my mathematical knowleges. Standard deviation means that results of half of the people of your skills should fall in the range Expected Value +/- Standard Deviation. The other half should go upper or lower this range, depending on good/bad luck.
I'm not a mathematician, so I may be wrong. Still, my calculations show standard deviation as high as +/- 180% of tournament stakes for a single tournament. For multiple tournaments it decreases as a square root of the number of tries. So, for 286 tourneys you've played, standard deviation is 10.6%.
So, maybe your skills give you only 10% ROI, but you've been moderately lucky in your play so far. Or even maybe you have negative EV and should lose money, but you got very lucky. Or maybe you should win more but chances are against you.
I think results can be considered more or less reliable after 1000 tourneys, when standard deviation goes down to 6%. Conclusion is up to you.
Folowing is just one my observation.
I've been playing at PP high limit SNG's for almost 2 years. Every month last year I was in their Top 100 list (more often at top 50). Recently I evaluated PokerProphessy software and was pretty much surprized that 500,000 players at PP have their ITM rate higher than my. How come so many people have so high ITM and I still was able to perform pretty well?
Checking ITM of players at my tables, I found out that most of them, having high ITM rate, have played only 200 - 300 hands. It's not likely that all of them changed their nicknames recently. The only explanation I can offer is that most of those players are on winning streak. The others who are losers simply don't play high stakes anymore. They moved lower or stopped playing (temporarily, I hope [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]). Having more than 2M players at PP, it's not too hard to immagine that couple of thousand of them got very lucky in a short run (200 - 300 tourneys). That doesn't mean they are all good.
I hope you are.
Keep playing and good luck!

Taraz · #8 07-23-2005, 06:49 AM

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Also I'm slightly worried that I'm finishing in 5th twice as often as I am finishing in 4th.

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I don't understand. Don't they both pay out the same? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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I was just thinking that I might be getting to aggressive 5-handed and being too tight 4-handed. Then again, maybe I'm overanalzying.

Thanks to everyone who replied so far, I was just looking over my stats and was mildly concerned that my 2nd place finishes were higher than my 1sts and 3rds when it should be the other way around.