Party Poker BJ Tournament

[MicroBob]

ok. so i've investigated a little further just in case this would be worth something.


you get 1 'home-run' for each $100 wagered.

21st place right now is at 4500 home-runs...so he has wagered $450,000 in total.

I'm going to generously estimate that the BJ on Party (haven't looked at all the rules or done the caluclations) is a 1% disadvantage for the player.

Therefore, the 21st place player has an expectation of -$4500 right now (basically he should be -$1 for each home-run he has).

It's actually quite likely that the disadvantage is closer to 1.5% but I don't know for sure. Maybe it's got great rules and is only -0.6%...but somehow I doubt that.


The prize-package is worth $5800:
-- $2500 BJ tourney entry...maybe there will be an overlay in that, who knows?
-- $2500 value for the cruise
-- $800 in spending cash



The idea is to be in the top 21 BJ high-volume players from Dec 9-22.
The fact that 21st place has already dropped an expected $4500 on just Dec 12th or so is really appalling.


If these guys don't go broke trying to win this stupid thing then I think 15k HR's for an expectation of -$15k or so AT THE MINIMUM will be required to "win" the $5800 in value.

Wouldn't be surprised if the cut-off was higher than that....but some of these guys will have to drop out just from lack of funds I would think.

Of course, a lucky few might come close to break-even (or maybe even show a small profit) AND will have the cruise on top of that...but most will be BIG losers and the value of the cruise that they "won" will not even come close to making up for it.


Anyway, if any of you are wacky enough to be thinking of trying to do this I strongly encourage you to change your mind.

[tonypaladino]

Beantown,

"Yep in a big blackjack tourney the winner is gonna be the guy who sits on his starting chips and never makes a bet, because BJ is a -EV game and you always lose!"

You do not "always lose" a -EV game. You seem to not undersand probability. Also, as PJN said, relax.

[Sniper]

Since they added Blackjack, Party has raked in $1 million/day in casino revenue... a huge increase...there's a whole lot of blackjack going on! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

For comparison, avg daily poker revenue was $2.67 million, during the same period.