anyone let this one go?

aba20 · #1 06-26-2005, 05:20 AM

Anyone find a fold either on the turn or river?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, 1 fold, SB raises, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, SB 3-bets, Hero caps, UTG folds, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (15 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB

einbert · #2 06-26-2005, 05:32 AM

No, you're probably beat but the pot is too large IMO. Plus you have 4 outs vs his most likely holding on the turn.

I think he will play AJ this way often enough for a profitable river call.

kamelion44 · #3 06-26-2005, 05:37 AM

I'm not sure I call preflop, but maybe I'm just playing too many tables. As far as the postflop action, how aggressive is your opponent? No read, not even PV stats?

SinCityGuy · #4 06-26-2005, 05:45 AM

On the turn you get counterfeited, but you're getting 14 to 1 to call on your 4-outer (you only need 10.5 to 1). The SB most likely has AA, KK or QQ, with a much lesser chance of JJ.

I would fold the river.

aba20 · #5 06-26-2005, 06:39 AM

no reads at the time. But now I know he is very aggressive. I also feel Like once I get to the river I need to call one more bet just based on the size of the pot.

jjacky · #6 06-26-2005, 10:14 AM

yes, i think so too. you can't fold the turn because you have 4 outs and you can't fold the river for one more bet in this big pot.
however, i would have folded preflop, but i think it was close.

ecooke · #7 06-26-2005, 10:50 AM

All four of your outs are live so the Turn is a clear call as long as you can be sure MP3 will not raise behind.
With that said, I can't put the SB on any hands you can beat on the River (assuming not tricky opponent): AA, KK, QQ, JJ. River fold looks standard against ABC opponent - otherwise since the pot is very large you should call.

Grease · #8 06-26-2005, 11:04 AM

This is exactly the situation you don't want to be in on the river, but you're there, and you have to make the best of it. There is a small probability he could have AJ. Is it more than 6%? I think so...

I would call with a tissue in hand.

PF is pretty marginal, but I won't knock it. One more limper would have been nice, but it's not the most debatable street.

ecooke · #9 06-26-2005, 11:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
PF is pretty marginal, but I won't knock it. One more limper would have been nice, but it's not the most debatable street.

[/ QUOTE ]
With all due respect, the PF call for one more from the BB is the most -EV play in this hand. All J5s has going for it is the s (4th nut flush!). No big card, no connectedness, no nothing. This hand is junk.

Not folding folped top two against a villain likely to have a big pocket pair will not a long term loser make. But playing any two suited from the BB for a raise is huge mistake.

Grease · #10 06-26-2005, 11:18 AM

Player is getting 9-1 when it's all said and done (assuming no other raises), and he's got position on the raiser.

I would definitely play this here, especially because he can raise the SB if he flops a good hand. It's less likely he'll get trapped in a raising war if he flops a flush draw. Do you never play J5s against a raise, or aren't there enough people in?