Set on 3 flush flop

C M Burns · #1 08-21-2004, 01:00 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($138.75)
UTG ($162.45)
UTG+1 ($98)
MP1 ($90)
MP2 ($204)
CO ($206.65)
Hero ($87)
SB ($539.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $2, MP2 folds, CO calls $2, Hero calls $2, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($12) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB bets $4, UTG raises to $20, MP1 folds, CO folds, 

Now what? no real read on the player. Do you think your hand is good here? Calling seems like it will just put me in the same spot on the turn, unless maybe another heart comes i could fold. and any raise more or less pot comits me so it seems like an allin or fold situation. Does anyone fold here?

BobboFitos · #2 08-21-2004, 01:13 AM

You should consider folding here... Why go broke in an unraised pot? Consider the possibilities. He could have limped with the red Aces or kings here, in which case he has 11 outs on you; he could have AKh and you'd have 10 outs on him; he could have Ah X and he'd have 9 outs on you. Those are all plausible. In all those scenarios, it's probably Pos EV to call and/or raise. (Calling in position here isn't a bad move; if a heart falls you can get away from it, if the board pairs perhaps your hand is best)

He could ALSO have something like top set, (limping with 8s or 9s from UTG is reasonable) and you're a huge dog if all the money went in.

I'm not necessarily advocating folding here, I find it incredibly hard to get away from a set, but the point is not to lose all your money in an unraised pot where at best you're a 60ish% favorite. (And very well could be in trouble)

Also, to comment on the all in or fold, I dont think thats true here. If you do call you're still left with plenty of chips, plus you do have position on him. The thing is, though, you dont know what action the BB will take behind you, because if you do call, he's liable to move in, and then you're put at another decision.

Perhaps I'm more conservative, but if there's a lot of heat on that flop, and I'm sitting on bottom set, (the BB could have anything, as well, it was a limped pot) then by all means letting it go isn't wrong.

fatduck · #3 08-21-2004, 02:16 AM

Fold and pretend you didn't hit anything on the flop.

Don't go broke in an unraised pot. There are far far better places to get your money in than this one.

UncleDuke · #4 08-21-2004, 02:56 AM

This is a situation I find difficult too. I'm curious -- would those of you who fold here change your answer if the hero had top set instead of bottom?

fatduck · #5 08-21-2004, 04:13 AM

Top set means you're probably not way the hell behind in this hand, and you have outs to a boat against just about anything, but with an unraised pot preflop you just can't rule out the fact that someone may have flopped a flush. Not worth the risk imo.

DClausen · #6 08-21-2004, 04:27 PM

after the raise calling or folding seem about equal. However, I think you should bet more like $10-$15 at the flop, then you'll have a better idea where you stand. Then a raise probly means a flush has you. Then you can slow down on the turn if you don't get a fh and keep badly beat hands (such as A high draw or overpair) drawing. If you get fh, you'll have the chance to take a slow played flush's stack.

cornell2005 · #7 08-21-2004, 08:07 PM

id fold with bottom set and your stack, call with top set and your stack, and call with bottom set and a bigger stack.