VERY QUICK, AKs vs. a raise PF

[Jonny]

Paradise NL200. I have about 380 in MP. I look down at AKs. Folded to me and I open for my standard $8 (4x the BB). Player right after me calls. Button raises to $26. Its $18 back to me, and his stack is about 50. Player to my left has about 200. Your move? I think this is close between raising, folding, and calling...

[Jonny]

forgot to add, no reads yet.

[pyroponic]

I think your best move here is to either fold or raise...calling should definately not be an option vs. the short stack. If you decide to play this hand, maybe make it $70 to go as I doubt the $200 stack would want to tango with you unless he had KK/AA. Short stack could very well have AKo, AQs, QQ, or JJ, maybe even TT. If you're up against KK/AA so be it. I guess it would depend on my read on the short-stack, if he lost a lot of money and is on tilt I could imagine him reraising you with any of the above hands. I usually don't like take slick too far but I say if you're up against a short stack you hope that he calls with a worse hand (or AKo so you're freerolling the flush) or maybe even folds (which I doubt he'd do). Either way you're most likely coinflipping here but since you already put $10 in the pot maybe reraising him would be slightly +EV. If you're up against a decent PP, a A or K will probably make you a better hand but if he hits a set you still have redraws to a straight or flush. The reason I think calling is the worst option is because you're pretty much pot committing yourself by calling and plus you don't want the $200 stack to join in on the action.

[C M Burns]

I think this is close between calling and folding, i think this will usually be a big pair so raising probabbly is not a good idea. the question is just whether when you make your hand you will make more than when you miss and when you make it and are beat. against jj or qq you will flop the better hand about 40% i think, kk 15-20% and aa rarley. on average you'll prob be ahead on the flop 25-30% max, so would want 2,3-1 pot/implied odds, which is close to what you are getting, if the 50 is after the raise, if the 50 is before the raise a call is almost like an allin, where you are likley behind, although with that small a stack he may have less than ak

[Jonny]

An argument can be made for calling as well because the player to my left had a deep stack, as did I, which AKs plays well against.

Argument for raising, because it would isolate the short stack and hope I have him dominated (AQ, AJ) or hope he has JJ, QQ.

Finally, for folding: because the raiser most likely has a high PP, and I'd be racing at best. Also, im out of position against both players...


Now, what is the best choice?

[pyroponic]

Didn't notice you were out of position, but I think that is even a better argument to raise. You're letting $200 know you have a strong hand, and if you're trying to draw to a flush you don't want to do so out of position. Plus if you do hit an A or K I don't know if I would want the risk of facing a big raise if I led out...I think by just calling you're risking a lot of chips against the $200 stack if he happens to hit 2-pair or a set on the flop. If it's a race vs. small stack you're slightly ahead since you already contributed money to the pot and you'd most likely want to isolate vs. the small stack who is most likely raising you with a strong hand but marginally strong as far as premium hands go. Although AKs plays well in multiway pots, I think going heads up after the flop with the $200 stack takes away the multiway value of this hand and you're most likely playing this hand for high card strength.

[kongo_totte]

I agree with pyroponic, calling would be the worse option here. If the third guy folds you are heads up against a guy with $50 left and the pot is $63, and you are out of position. If you miss the flop you can't really do anything but check-folding. You have to assume his money is going in there no matter what falls. I would probablu raise him his last 50. I would think it's a coin flip most of the time, and you'll be ahead as often as you'll be behind. Add to that some folding equity and I think a raise is your best option, but it's close.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You can't really say that "his money is going in there no matter what falls", but at the same time there is "some folding equity".

[kongo_totte]

Well, some folding equity, but not much. He might fold TT-88, altough they're unlikely holdings. In which case, I can't see him folding the flop unless an ace or king falls (and then you don't want him to fold). A player who is really weak-tight post flop might fold if any overcard falls, say a Q or J.

My point is though, calling preflop is the worse option. The holdings you're really hoping for him to have is a weaker ace (AQ or even AJ). If you just call though, and miss the flop you're most common option would be to bet out anyway, but you can't do that considering his stack, and the fact that his most likely holding is a pocket pair (QQ-TT). He is not folding overpair on the flop with his stack. If you call, as I see it you must check a missed flop, in which case he will bet it 9 times out of ten, even if he´s holding AQ-AJ (or AK) and you can't really call then.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Sorry, I actually meant to say that I agreed with your analysis except for the "some folding equity" part. I think you raise and he calls with a pocket pair. The interesting question is what do you do if the $200 stack pushes after your raise...