On the bubble, tied for chip lead, fold AKs to all-in...

[rydazzle]

[ QUOTE ]
AKs v. Ax = ~75% win
AKs v. any two = ~66% win
AKs v. pp (other than AA/KK) = ~46%

Is the difference between villian having a dominated Ax/Kx hand and a "any two" hand that significant to make a difference between call or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree, especially since "any two" can give AKs almost 70%

[multifast1]

Ok, I just ran the ICM calculations... and I'm not sure if I did them right BUT...

Fold = 2200/7000 chips = 31.4% ICM
Call and win = 5000/7000 chips = 71.4% ICM
Call and lose = 0%

If villian has:
Ax/Kx (75/25 odds)= 53.6% ICM
Any two (66/33 odds)= 47.1% ICM
PP 22-QQ (46/54 odds)= 32.8% ICM

Compared to 31.4% ICM if folding, calling sounds pretty good.

[Slim Pickens]

Somehow, the OP has only 7000 total chips in play. Something is not right. I just reformatteed my hard drive so I'm stuck without any SGA until I get my new reg code. I feel helpless.

[gisb0rne]

I entered these numbers into SnG Power Tools and got...

Raise any 2: -1.8% EV
Raise TT+, AQ+: -8.5% EV
Raise 77+, A9+: -5.3% EV
Raise 22+, A2+, KQ, KJs: -3.1% EV
Raise 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+: -1.5% EV

So it's clear fold (according to PT). I would guess the reason is largely due to the fact that AKs just doesn't dominate many hands and you are risking an almost guaranteed 3rd while the blinds are not very high relative to your stack size. Would you be happy if you called and he flipped over any pair? I wouldn't. What about if he flipped over JTs or something?

According to the PT you should call with AA no matter what. Call with KK only if you think he raised with 22+, A2+, KQ, KJs or worse. Call with QQ only against a range broader than 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+. If you think he's raising literally any 2, you can call with as low as 99.

Notice that these pairs all perform better than AKs because really, AKs doesn't perform all that well against anything that doesn't include an A or K.

[Slim Pickens]

I just used your numbers with 8000 chips. Maybe I need to rethink this.

Fold = 2200/8000 chips = 27.5% ICM
Call and win = 5000/8000 chips = 62.5% ICM
Call and lose = 0%

If villian has:
Ax/Kx (75/25 odds)= 46.9% ICM
Any two (66/33 odds)= 41.3% ICM
PP 22-QQ (46/54 odds)= 28.8% ICM

Compared to 27.5% ICM if folding, calling sounds pretty good.

[multifast1]

Edit: read the stats wrong.. Can someone else shed light on the PT stuff? That doesn't make sense at all.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]

Raise TT+, AQ+: -8.5% EV
Raise 77+, A9+: -5.3% EV
Raise 22+, A2+, KQ, KJs: -3.1% EV
Raise 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+: -1.5% EV
Raise any 2: -1.8% EV

[/ QUOTE ]

It does appear to go through a maximum somewhere in there... somewhere close to +EV... I should know my numbers better than that...

[gisb0rne]

Even if I change the chip counts to 2500/2500/2000/1000 it's still a fold against a raise with any 2.

[Slim Pickens]

Since you've got SGA running and I don't now...

Can you find a modestly plausible range where it is +EV to call? My whole argument so far has been "I think it is there, somewhere above any two."

[the_joker]

If you put him on TT+,A2+,K2+ (a bizarre range) then it's even money. Something like 22+,A2+,K2+, or even 99+,A2+,K2+, is a fold.