Can thinking too much at the table have a -EV?

[pistol78]

Hi everyone,

AS i was thinking about my game today and about ways that I can improvfe it i stumbled onto a very fascinating situation that i always put myself in. I find that in certain situations I am thinking too much for my own good or often act too "tricky" for my own good. Let me explain.

Often times, particulary when I am in the BB, I call raises that I shouldn't call, or play hands that i normally dont play just because I think that I can outsmart my opponents and win with any 2 cards. DOnt get me worng I am not talking about playing a Q3o but you get the idea. Well anyways a recent example of this occured when a player open raised form MP got one caller in LP and i called in the BB with 87o. The flop came rags, I checked MP bet and LP fodled. When it was my turn to act, I thought for moment

" I dont think MP has anyhting, maybe a couple of paints or an Ace, so I can either fold and let him have it, or call and c/r a non threating turn card" !!!!!!

I find myself doing this alot and when it is succesfull I am overwhelmed with joy knowing that i pulled a move on someone. The only problem is that I dont think it is working enough to show a positive EV.

This particular hand worked out in my favor, but it got me to thinking

"Is this play even worthwile?"

Why not fold and wait for a better hand or a better spot to pull this off.

Another situation I find myself in is where i have a pretty accurate (by accurate I mean 98%) read on my oppenent's hole cards, and although they are superior to mine they are pretty marginal relative to what the board cards are. FOR EXAMPLE on a board of 6789x If I have JJ (lets jsut say) and I am pretty sure my oppponent has QQ or better, I often try and make him fold it rather than fold myslef. Often In these types of situations I dont hink of how many outs i have to improve or think about folding, rather I think of what my opponent might have and then think of ways to make him fold a far more superior hand than my own.

Sorry for rambling, but i just wanted to get my thoughts out there and ask if anyone has ever thought like this or acted like this, and if so is it a good thing? A bad thing? ANd if it is a bad thing how do you cope with it?

Thanks in advance,
-Pistol

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
"Is this play even worthwile?"

Why not fold and wait for a better hand or a better spot to pull this off.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not addressing any particular hand you posted. But, the "why not fold and wait" line which comes up again and again is flawed thinking.

If you've got a +EV play, you should make it. It doesn't matter whether a better spot will come later on. After all, whether you make the play or not, that better spot is going to come up anyway. You can make the play and then seize the better spot too.

If you have KK on the button and everybody folds to you, do you fold because a better spot will come up later? It will you know. Eventually, you'll be dealt AA on the button.

[Blarg]

Great response.

To the original poster -- I think the process and aggression you're talking about is great. As long as you keep it in check and aren't kidding yourself about whether someone will really fold or not -- as long as you're not using your own real or imagined cleverness as an excuse for aggression that may not actually pay off, that is. Your reads on both the cards and the players have to be as good as you think they are.

One nice thing about some of those moves is that they can influence the table. Flashing those cards when you've won or lost can crank some good value even out of attempts that went belly-up, so even misses can have salvage value.

I think your aggression and desire to figure out winning situations are great, as long as you don't get carried away and turn it into a contest where you're determined to bluff out calling stations or something, or rely on always flopping scare cards that may or may not come to justify your extra investments. I've made a ton of money off scare cards myself, but that doesn't mean I hang around with nothing hoping for them unless I'm against truly terrible players. Which has actually happened to me before. I remember one guy was so bad that I would raise with nothing to isolate against him, then usually win either by having better cards in the first place or just betting him off his hands or check-raising him off them. That was rare enough that I still remember the guy years later though.