I think I finally learning

[kidcolin]

Scotty,

You're giving 3/6 opponents way too much credit. It doesn't matter to them if they're holding AT and they may be dominated and don't have odds to the gutshot since it'll probably be split. They're seeing the river.

At the same time, your analysis is a little off. Against a pocket pair, they're drawing to 7-10 outs, and it's not THAT rare that they're drawing to 10. I'm assuming OP is playing standard 2+2 numbers, so his 3-bet range is pretty wide. If villain has AQ-AT, he has 10 outs a decent amount of the time.