GDP?

[lehighguy]

What is a point of GDP worth?
Why is it that big a deal if we have 2.5% or 3.5% growth YoY?


I did a simple little numbers game to get some perspective.

If two economies start with the same GDP per capita, how would big a difference would that one point make.

After 10 years the high growth economy is 10.2% better off.
25 years: 27.5%
50 years: 62.4%
100 years: 164%

Or on a per capita basis. A 2% growth in per capita GDP (price adjusted) from 1900 to today brings us to roughly were we are.

Now let's cut that down to 1%.

The per capita income in the US goes from $36,672 to $13,161. So if we had endorsed policies that lead to even a 1% decrease in GDP growth per year, that's where we'd be at right now.

[Il_Mostro]

Congratulations. You have just discovered the eplosive properties of exponential growth.

Now think about what this means when we have exponential growth in the use of many natural resources.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function".
Dr. Bartlett

[adios]

I've been mostly out of town the last two weeks and without the internet for the past 6 days or so. Time to wade back in I guess.

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Now think about what this means when we have exponential growth in the use of many natural resources.

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My understanding is that horse dung was a major problem in urban areas around the turn of the century. Think about what exponenential growth would mean to the amount of horse dung to clean up if the US economy was supported by buggy whip companies.

[Il_Mostro]

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My understanding is that horse dung was a major problem in urban areas around the turn of the century. Think about what exponenential growth would mean to the amount of horse dung to clean up if the US economy was supported by buggy whip companies.

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It most certainly might have been. But horse dung is not iron, copper, fresh water, grain, oil, NG or any other commodity we seems to be risking shortage of in a not-to-distant future. Ok, ok, we don't risk shortage of iron, just yet.

Or do you still belive that given enough money God will provide with enough raw materials?

[lehighguy]

Similair claims have been made for centuries. Pick a resource. This is not to say that depletion is not possible, but it is also not inevitable.

[Il_Mostro]

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Similair claims have been made for centuries. Pick a resource. This is not to say that depletion is not possible, but it is also not inevitable.

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Depletion is inevitable. What is not inevitable is any form of catastrophic result from said depletion.

The populations and more importantly birth rates of most 1st world countries who consume most of the resources seems to be coming to a grinding halt.

[Il_Mostro]

That of course is a good thing. However, there seems to be quite a lot of evidence that even current usage of many resources (such as fresh water and fish) is unsustainable.

And then of course we have China and India. You don't think they'd like to raise their level of use a bit?

[Jedi Flopper]

[ QUOTE ]
That of course is a good thing. However, there seems to be quite a lot of evidence that even current usage of many resources (such as fresh water and fish) is unsustainable.

And then of course we have China and India. You don't think they'd like to raise their level of use a bit?

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The human race will become extinct looooong before we run out of fresh water. It is not even close. I will let others elaborate.

[Il_Mostro]

I belive you need to read up on things.

Or else you know about a nuclear war I havn't heard of yet.