QQ - UTG, what's my flop play?

[Cleveland Guy]

$10 Pokerroom 1 Rebuy Tourney.

We are well past the rebuy period- but still far away from the money.

60 some left, top 20 pay, we started with 250. Blinds are currently at 300/600

I get QQ UTG and I have about 13,000. My stack is slightly above average, and I have a good table image (I Think).

I open raise for 1500. LMP cold calls. He has about 18,000 and has me covered. He hasn't been at the table for a long time, and the only hand of note is he called a short stacks 5xBB push with AK from the BB. So nothing out of line I would say.

Okay - the flop comes T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I lead out into the pot of 3900 for 2500.

He comes back with a raise to 6000.

What's my best play?

[billyjex]

push.

if he has me beat, so be it. if he's on a draw i'm not going to let him see it cheaply.

[AaronFB]

Is one of your queens a club?

[sekrah]

Push it..

All in!

[Sam T.]

Interesting. My random thoughts:

What range of hands did you put him on? I have to think AA or KK is going to re-pop pre-flop. So that leaves QQ-TT, and AK-AQ. (I know weak-tighties will call with KK so that they can fold if an Ace flops, but if that's the case, Merry Christmas to him.)

I have trouble putting him on a draw other than A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and MAYBE A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and with two to the flop this is statistically unlikely. (I've found that if I stop worrying so much about flush draws when I'm heads-up on the flop, life is much easier.) An unsuited AK is possible, and the donk raise is to see whether you are also on big unpaired careds; I've seen this a lot lately. So I think the chances are very good that you are way ahead of JJ/AK or drawing thin against TT or (possibly) a bigger pair.

That said, I don't think you're getting out of this hand without all your chips in the middle. So the question is whether you want his chips in there with yours, or do you try to push him off the hand. If it's the former, shove it here. If you want to push him off his hand without a show down, how about a call here, and pushing the turn? I don't think it would get him to lay down a set, AA or KK, but it might, especially if a club falls. Just a thought.

Sam

[Sam T.]

N/M

[bruce]

Insta push.

Unless I saw his cards all my chips are going into the middle.
If he has a higher pocket pair or flopped a set, well, them are the breaks. At this stage you can't make a big lay down when it appears like you have way the best of it.

Bruce

[Cleveland Guy]

I pushed. And rand into a Set.

Seems like it was the right play.

The hand range I put him on was a pocket Pair AA-99. I think 2 big overs with a flush draw would push all in and be happy if I folded.

This raise here, was just enough to get me to committ - and that's what threw me.

He didn't min raise, but he raised it just another 3500.

Calling here would pot committ me, so I figured my best play was to push, the whole time I'm thinking he has KK, JJ, TT - and I'm only good against 1 of those hands.

Oh well, seems like I made the best play wich is all I can ask for.

[yoadrians]

Pushing here is the right play after his raise. With that flop, you can't lay this down.

[tshak]

The pot is offering 2.7:1. In the worst case scenario hand range (AA and KK included) your overall EV is about 55%. With a more realistic hand range we would exclude AA and KK. Now your EV is over 70%. It's a no brainer allin. Because of your high EV and high pot odds, you'd have to be a master hand reader to fold this hand. While I agree that his bet was definitely designed to put you at a decision for all of your chips, I think that a tough player can make this type of play with a hand as weak as 99 or AQo. I like to think I can fold hands like these profitably when I'm "sure" I'm beat, but I think this allows people to run over you too often, and in reality you're dumping loads of EV.

Now let's consider the times that he has not flopped a monster like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or a set. The times he has JJ, 99, AK (most likely on club to get any action), you most definitely want action. You may be able to induce an allin raise or call if you overbet the pot or simply move allin. He may put you on a draw and call with a significantly weaker hand. The other benefit is that when you do flop a nice draw on a board like this you can make a bet like this again and people (who you've sold this move to at least) will be less likely to put you on a draw and you can take the pot right there. Either way you're +EV but I'm just suggesting some alternatives that may benefit your play.