Fright night

stlip · #1 12-12-2005, 09:41 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

BB is the village idiot, although he has been making hand after hand against me for more than an hour. MP1 joined the table slightly more than two orbits earlier. I've seen him with a QQ and a flopped straight where he passed up four or five chances in those hands where he should have bet, raised or reraised.

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, MP1 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (9.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, MP1 raises, Hero calls, BB 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (12.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 bets, Hero ...

Well, from the W-T-F limp reraise preflop to this and every street in between I don't know if I should have been gone, if I wimped out and should have put in another raise or two somewhere or if crazy as it sounds this was the way to play it.

#2 12-12-2005, 09:53 AM

Raise the riv. No way I give him credit for Ks, 8s, or even AKs. TT? nah. If he has the str8 flush, I'm paying off to a cap here. Betting pattern is really wierd, but looks more like a A high flush to me.

TripleH68 · #3 12-12-2005, 10:22 AM

Given your reads I think you should go for the overcall on the river.

Esp. since you aren't folding to a 3-bet.

sean c · #4 12-12-2005, 10:48 AM

Hi stlip. I am capping pre flop and 3-betting the flop. The turn looks good. River is tough we improved our hand but if we raise and are 3-bet we are toast but not to the point where we could fold so i like the call and go for the overcall line TripleH sugggests.

@bsolute_luck · #5 12-12-2005, 10:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I am capping pre flop and 3-betting the flop. The turn looks good.

[/ QUOTE ]

agree with this, but i think i'm still raising this river. we fear 2 cards at this point, meaning he'd have to L/R with AxK[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or KxK[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 8x8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (can't see any other 8 L/R this hand). i think we'll see an A-high flush, JJ fullhouse or AK straight often enough and the other player may still call with his lower flush.

benkath1 · #6 12-12-2005, 10:56 AM

cap preflop.

I think I just flat call that river. With the str8 flush possibilities there, I don't think an overcall from the bb would be all that bad, and I'd hate to see a 3 bet.

With top set, what do you put the LRRer on? You are ahead of AA and KK, behind AsKs.

sean c · #7 12-12-2005, 11:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am capping pre flop and 3-betting the flop. The turn looks good.

[/ QUOTE ]

agree with this, but i think i'm still raising this river. we fear 2 cards at this point, meaning he'd have to L/R with AxK[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or KxK[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or 8x8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (can't see any other 8 L/R this hand). i think we'll see an A-high flush, JJ fullhouse or AK straight often enough and the other player may still call with his lower flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi absolute is it certainly close and given the fact that BB is the village idiot and would probably overcall two here as likely as one might push this to a raise.

stlip · #8 12-12-2005, 12:37 PM

Some of you are pretty aggressive with other people's money.

During the hand I simply called the river because I was almost positive I'd get an overcall from BB and less sure he would call a raise, especially with MP1 lurking with his possible straight flush. So my quick back of the envelope calculation was that MP1 has either an As or Ks and I could win 2 or lose 1 BB and that looked to be about as good as I could hope for in this hand.

With a little more time to think about it I don't think I could have played it any other way. Here's the problem:

If BB calls a single bet I figure to win 2 bets half the time and lose 1 half the time so I'm +0.5 EV. If BB surprises me and folds for 1 bet it's still not that big a deal. I win 1 half the time and lose 1 half the time so it's EV neutral. If BB calls a raise then I win 4 bets half the time and lose 3 the other half so my positive expectation from the raise is the same as simply calling, 0.5 EV. But on those times when BB doesn't call a raise I stand to win 2 or lose 3 and so now for the first time there is a possibility of a -EV result. Not only that, this doesn't even take account of the likelihood that BB will overcall a single bet more often than he is going to call a raise.

bozlax · #9 12-12-2005, 01:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If BB calls a single bet I figure to win 2 bets half the time and lose 1 half the time so I'm +0.5 EV. If BB surprises me and folds for 1 bet it's still not that big a deal. I win 1 half the time and lose 1 half the time so it's EV neutral. If BB calls a raise then I win 4 bets half the time and lose 3 the other half so my positive expectation from the raise is the same as simply calling, 0.5 EV. But on those times when BB doesn't call a raise I stand to win 2 or lose 3 and so now for the first time there is a possibility of a -EV result. Not only that, this doesn't even take account of the likelihood that BB will overcall a single bet more often than he is going to call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this analysis is that you're only giving yourself a 50% chance of winning the hand. There are lots of hands that would be played in this manner by the players you describe than just hands that beat you. Again, just like in n00b's post, this is either results-oriented thinking or MUBS...you're way over 85% to win this hand, IMO, and can therefore safely cap the river.

sean c · #10 12-12-2005, 01:14 PM

Your giving villian to narrow of a range and assuming your behind to often. Even if it is behind 50% and ahead 50% and you assume BB is overcalling two bets here as often as he is overcalling one and if 3-bet it means you are losing 95% of the time raising still has a higher expectation than calling.