Protecting Draws and Buying Outs

[waynethetrain]

On page 158 of SSH it discusses protecting draws and buying outs.

I want to make sure on understand this section correctly.

The reason we should be willing to raise with our nut flush draw in the example even though we would be facing several players with 2 bets (and thus increase the chances they would fold and we would lose customers) is because we have 2 overcards that we would like to protect in the event we catch one on the turn or river in this big multi-way pot. Also, the raise has decent value because 2 players are already in.

Suppose however there was only 1 player in prior to our turn to bet (the bet came from our immediate right). Now the raise would not be good value on the flush draw if we knocked out all the other players as a result. However, it would still buy some outs.

So what is the right move in that case?

Suppose we have a 4 flush without overcards. Then wouldn't we be better off not raising unless there were a few callers already in because we don't want to KO customers.

[SteveL91]

Read the last paragraph of the section on p. 160. Basically, it says to use pot size to determine the course of action.

In your first example, it depends on the size of the pot (of course), but in general, I'd favor raising with the nut flush draw; especially if you have a weak A like A5. If you can get bigger A's to fold, you considerably improve your chances of winning the pot.

In the second example, you'd just call, unless you can trap enough players to make it for value. Since your chances of winning the pot are slim by hitting a pair, you need your draw to come in.

[Jakesta]

The reason we should be willing to raise with our nut flush draw is because it is the nut flush draw. We have a minimum of 35% of the pot. That means that it is +EV to cap the flop if you can get at least 2 others to come along with you. You can also cap the turn on an unpaired board with yout nut flush draw if you are assured of at least 4 callers at 4 bets each(I had this happen earlier today). I hit my flush on the river and busted a set as well as top pair, winning a gigantic 52 BB pot.

After winning the pot, I remarked to myself FISHIEE GOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTT.

[aK13]

I'm kind of confused as to the situation, do we have 1 over or 2 overs + nut flush draw?

Either way, you might find this thread helpful.

Click me!

[Jakesta]

Are you asking that question about THAT hand? You have two overs+ the NFD in that hand. The A and J both count as overs. I think that you should be more willing to face people with two cold if you have an overcard(or 2, in your case- even better) to go with your flush draw.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you asking that question about THAT hand? You have two overs+ the NFD in that hand. The A and J both count as overs. I think that you should be more willing to face people with two cold if you have an overcard(or 2, in your case- even better) to go with your flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe this is what the poster is talking about.

If not, there is also some discussion at the bottom involving a hand where we have something like A9s, were we only have one over. In that case, the consensus is that we should still be raising, but I don't think it's as clear cut.

[fire_fly]

You know, I really think you guys are missing one thing.

If your table is weak (and we are in micro forum, it probably is,) I've found the correct play to be just raise and cross your fingers that people call. They usually do.

Even if there is only 1 other in so far (the bettor), and either a bunch or a few people left to act behind you, I think raising is ev+ almost all the time. But like I said, this is assuming sufficient table fishieness. If everyone calls, great, you have good pot equity, if only a couple call, you might have bought a free card, if only 1 calls (or maybe 2 that like to fold turn/river, you may just have a bit of turn semi-bluff fold equity.

I'll make this play even with a baby flush draw on a paired board, and it seems to work out pretty well for me .

Oh and btw, since we're on the subject, what is an average pot equity when the flop comes paired? I know nut flush on non paired board on flop is 35 right? I'm guessing there is no exact number (has to do w/ # ppl in pot, etc) but I'm curious to hear a good estimate...

And would raising a flush draw when you know you are beat on the turn but you KNOW at least 4+ others will call ev+ for the same reason? I'm guessing yes, but this is a pretty rare situation, so I'm not sure (haven't thought that much about it.)

[moot]

Yes fire_fly, I like this line too.

It's like if you're last to act with a royal flush on the river in a no limit game. How much should you bet? AS MUCH AS THEY'LL CALL.

You'll often run into many opponents who will cold call two with very questionable holdings, so why charge them only one when they're willing to pay two? This with also give you more options on the turn and you can sometimes take a free card if the situation warrants it.

[UncleSalty]

I think you guys are missing the point of Wayne's question. He already understands the pot equity implications and the reasons for correctly raising a flush draw assuming enough people will call.

He is trying to isolate the benefit of raising ONLY to protect his overs. Meaning, if he raises after just one bet comes from his right, is he hoping for everyone to fold, or everyone to call?

I dont' think it's a very easy answer. It's probably best to analyze this in the context of a hand that doesn't include a flush draw. In that case, you need good reads on the table. You need to consider just how big the pot is, and whether your raise has any chance of knocking out other overcards. And, you need to consider how strong your overcards are. Do you have AK? AJ? AK outs will beat a lot of big pocket pairs, but AJ will often be drawing to 3 outs at best. The texture of the PF action is important to determine who on your left will call or re-raise.

In short, like so many poker situations, the answer is "it depends."

[moot]

It's almost impossible to quantify this, though. It depends on two things that we do not entirely know:

1) What cards our opponents hold.
2) How they will react to our raise.

We can put our opponents on ranges of hands and use stats to determine how passive/aggressive or loose/tight they are, but it in the end, yes, it basically just "depends."

The bigger the pot gets the more willing we should be to invest that extra bet to protect, even if we don't necessarily now that bet will do any good. That's about all I can really say on the matter. Losing an extra bet once in a while is okay provided it occasionally saves us that monster pot.