My WSD is too low

jrz1972 · #1 05-17-2005, 03:58 PM

Here are my relevant stats over the past 23k hands (played since March 1):

VPIP: 18.03
PFR: 8.32
WSD: 29.11
W$SD: 54.76

AF flop: 3.10
AF turn: 3.00
AF river: 2.05

Based on other stats post, I can conclude the following:

1. My VPIP is a little low. I know that and I know how to correct for it. That's not really what this post is about.

2. My PFR is too low. Again, I know that and I know how to correct for it. That's not really what this post is about.

3. My WSD is a little low and my W$SD is a little high, which suggests that I'm folding too many winners. Over the past several weeks, I think I've done a pretty good job addressing points (1) and (2), as I've found it pretty easy to find examples of missed isolation raises, missed opportunities to limp with suited gappers, etc. But I'm somewhat baffled by what you guys are getting to showdown with that I'm folding. (Someone with a WSD of 33, for example, is getting to showdown about once per hundred hands more than me).

Obviously I'm not routinely folding flush draws, oesds, top pair, overpairs, sets, quads, etc. I am thinking that my problems likely stem from hands where I have a pocket underpair to the board and hands where I flop middle or bottom pair.

Here are two recent hands where I thought it was fairly routine to let my hand go but maybe I'm playing too weakly.

Hand 1:
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP2 bets, Button folds, Hero folds

This seemed to me like a routine reverse implied odds hand. If it had been HU I would have contested this, but not with three opponents. (Two at the point I folded).

Hand 2:
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero (poster) checks, CO raises, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
UTG bets, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero calls, CO raises, Button calls, UTG calls, MP1 3-bets, Hero folds

Yes, the pot is large when it gets back to me, but my two-pair/trips draw isn't looking so hot when three opponents have indicated that they like their hands.

What am I doing wrong here? (Besides posting in MP3).

davelin · #2 05-17-2005, 04:03 PM

Check-raise Hand 1. Your aggression stats also seem to indicate that you fold too much as well.

milesdyson · #3 05-17-2005, 04:07 PM

Hand 1:

Raise preflop, especially if BB is tight. Then, bet the flop. Since you didn't raise preflop, a check raise would be good here, unless the flop bettor is really passive.

Hand 2: Posting there is fine. Calling the raise preflop is fine. Calling the first flop bet is fine, imo, at 15.5:1. When it comes back around to you, you're now getting 11.25:1 if I added correctly. Odds are lower and you now know, based on the action, that you are up against better hands. This is a good fold. You're drawing nearly dead a decent percetage of the time.

GrunchCan · #4 05-17-2005, 04:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1:

Raise preflop, especially if BB is tight. Then, bet the flop. Since you didn't raise preflop, a check raise would be good here, unless the flop bettor is really passive.

Hand 2: Posting there is fine. Calling the raise preflop is fine. Calling the first flop bet is fine, imo, at 15.5:1. When it comes back around to you, you're now getting 11.25:1 if I added correctly. Odds are lower and you now know, based on the action, that you are up against better hands. This is a good fold. You're drawing nearly dead a decent percetage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's nothing I can add to this.

GrunchCan · #5 05-17-2005, 04:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your aggression stats also seem to indicate that you fold too much as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you arrive at this conclusion?

davelin · #6 05-17-2005, 04:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your aggression stats also seem to indicate that you fold too much as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you arrive at this conclusion?

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Well, there are two ways to increase your aggression stat, be obnoxiously aggressive or fold. His slightly than higher 3 aggression stat in light of some of his other stats makes me believe its the latter, not the former.

Marquis · #7 05-17-2005, 04:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My WSD is a little low and my W$SD is a little high, which suggests that I'm folding too many winners.

[/ QUOTE ]

My WSD is the same as yours (30K+ hands) and my W$SD is a smidge over 55%. I don't feel like I'm folding too many winners. Why do you think that you are?

jrz1972 · #8 05-17-2005, 04:21 PM

Let me see if I can propose an alternative line for Hand 1:

Check-raise the flop. I assume I am done with the hand if I get 3-bet, so let's say villain just calls the raise and the other player folds. Then I bet/fold the turn and bet/fold the river? Or should I check-call someplace?

On one hand I know this is a very basic question but my last 10k hands have really sucked and I feel like my whole game is out of whack a bit. My wife and I are going on vacation to Tuscon next week, and I'm definitely thinking I will benefit from getting away from poker for a week.

GrunchCan · #9 05-17-2005, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your aggression stats also seem to indicate that you fold too much as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you arrive at this conclusion?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, there are two ways to increase your aggression stat, be obnoxiously aggressive or fold. His slightly than higher 3 aggression stat in light of some of his other stats makes me believe its the latter, not the former.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hm. Wonder which I am... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

jrz1972 · #10 05-17-2005, 04:26 PM

My reading of the forum is that most people report better success with a WSD in the low 30s than what I'm having. I'm thinking of Droolie's post in particular, but there have been a bunch of others suggesting that that's sort of industry standard.