OOP extraction decision

[jbrock]

Good online $200NL game.

Both villains are loose and not strong players. All stacks are about $200.

Preflop: Hero is UTG +1 and limps with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 3 limpers and Button minraises. We all call and 5 to the flop.

Flop ($20). 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets $15 (standard bet for me -- 3/4 pot). Fold, MP2 calls, fold, Button minraises to $30. Action on Hero with now $80 in the pot and $15 to call.

MP2 is likely on a draw with the flat call on the flop. Button can have pretty much any two cards including a premium pocket pair. Button had been minraising preflop frequently in late position. Both players are donks and clearly give good action.

The question is how to proceed and how much to raise. Calling is clearly out of the question as that would price MP2 in for ANY draw, including OESD w/o the flush. Raising too much may let Button off too easily. At the time this was a no brainer for me, but discussion afterwards made me ask if there is potentially an optimal line here that still makes calling on a draw a poor decision (i.e., pricing the draws out). Without MP2 in there, this hand plays easily, but being oop just plain sucks.

[vulturesrow]

Based on your description, a full pot bet seems to be in order. If you are really sure they like action, overbet the pot. But I rarely do this myself. I am thinking there is a good chance you will get reraised and then you can push.

After reviewing the stacks, a pot sized bet makes for an awkward situation if you both player calls. I think you are pot committed at that point and pretty much have to push the turn and give your opponents pretty decent drawing odds. Tough spot but I think I am going to stick with my pot sized raise and then play poker on the turn [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[DJ Sensei]

Try $50 more on top? (As in, raise to $65 total) it'll lay MP2 a little under 3-1 (Not good odds to draw, knowing theres gonna be more action on the turn, unless he has some kind of combo draw)

And the preflop raiser will have trouble letting go of his probable overpair (although A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) is also a possibility. You should be able to get all-in or close to it on the turn.

[beavens]

gonna go along with vulture and suggest a pot size raise.

Well pushing over top is out of the questions becuase i dont see worse hands calling you hear unless button is the player to call down with TP and/or he has an overpair. Theres $80 in the pot and $15 to you so your call would make it $95 to MP who needs to call with $15 which would give him 6.3:1 to call which for any draw is an easy call. I would say raise to 50. It looks cheap but it's also an incorrect call for the draws unless he has Straight/flush draw which then he is almost equal money to you. This bet forces him to make an error in his play which ultimatly wins you money. Now if they both call there should be about $180 in the pot and i would probably fire out (if turns a blank) and move myself all in for about the $90 if you really want the maximum value and arn't worried about the drawing out factor which would give them around 2.8:1 which is not enough for river draw and again forces the mistake but then if they both call this $90 turn bet or one person comes over the top your going to stick the rest in on the turn or river becuase you will be getting something like 9:1 if it's over a $350 pot because you will have about $40 left in your stack. If you want to end the hand on the turn or possibly get a lag to call you with a 10/overpair, i would move in for your $130 remaining.

[jbrock]

The basic problem is that there are so many cards that I do not want to see on the turn (any spade, a 6, 7, 8, J-K) which could make either a straight or flush and I am first to act.

Raising to $50 more is I think the worst possible decision. That would give MP2 very good implied odds and the correct immediate odds if he has a good draw (i.e., flush + gutshot).

A potsized raise would be about $100 more (or to $130 total) which would leave me with ~$65. If just one called me, the I just push the turn regardless of what falls since I would have the correct pot odds to fill up on the river.

The only question is which is more likely to be called: a 3-bet to $125-130 total or the push? In retrospect, at least to me, the push appears weaker. The strong 3-bet of a pot-sized raise looks like it wants a caller. What I am trying to say is that the push may be interpreted as a flush draw trying to take it down whereas the strong 3-bet pot-sized raise screams strong made hand.

If you read the post correct it said if he did not have a straight + flush draw because then it is basically even money.
He wants the most amount of chips he can get from a player, and $50 is the perfect raise, it seems cheap and he's getting the incorrect odds to call with JUST a OESD or a straight (2.6:1). Therefore your forcing your opponent to make a mistake and not commiting yourself if a card that you do not want to see comes up, so you have the option of moving on the turn or fold knowing you made the correct flop move to extract chips and he drew out.