Live $500 Buy-In NL Hand

[West]

I think this is a pretty clear all in.

[Rutis]

Isn't it possible that if you limp, get raised and then push, they will put you on AA or KK?

[Pepsquad]

I just read through every post and twice I was convinved pushing is the correct play, twice I was convinced folding is the correct play...now I'm just confused.

Hope this helps! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[doggin]

I was watching (lurking) jennicide play in a 11R last night,
yes I'm jennicide stalker, and she was UTG+2 with blinds at
3/6K and her stack was like 65K, she raises 3xBB w/88,
folded to CO who pushes with approx 70K, back to sweet thing
who calls. The CO had KK and her 88 did'nt improve.
Damn, I hated that.
But I've thought about the play here; with the CO being the prime steal position, she absolutely had to call,
I think??????
She had just made the money too, like 53rd.

[partygirluk]

A limp R-R has 0 Fold Equity.

[PokerGal7777]

Swede123 is correct, weak hand and weak position. You need to fold this hand.. you have 17K with 1K/2K blinds.. there is absolutely no reason to make a push with 88 from early position. -Debra.

[PrayingMantis]

I've read most of the posts in this thread, and I think there are some rather problematic arguments here, in any direction. So, I'm interested in thinking about this hand a bit more.

For instance, I'll take Jason's first reply (only to start with something).

[ QUOTE ]
Sure you can eat another round of blinds and have some folding equity, but 88 has way enough value here to push. Its not close in my book.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jason, I don't understand your point regarding 88 having enough value. Clearly, in this situation, pushing with 88 has *exactly* the same value as pushing with 22. If pushing with 88 is not close in your book, then the same should go for 22 (I'll stick to PPs for now).

So, Is pushing with 22 UTG here is such a no-brainer in your book?

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Jason, I don't understand your point regarding 88 having enough value. Clearly, in this situation, pushing with 88 has *exactly* the same value as pushing with 22.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Jason, I don't understand your point regarding 88 having enough value. Clearly, in this situation, pushing with 88 has *exactly* the same value as pushing with 22.

[/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I wasn't clear (if I interpret these icons right [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

In this table, according to the OP decription which was repeated in other posts here, the range of hands that will call your all-in here will do exactly the same against 88 as against 22. You'll be either dominated by a few over-pairs, or racing against a very few big A combinations. The EV for pushing with 88 is therefore the same as for pushing with 22.

[MarkD]

I'm going to try and run the numbers today if I can figure out how (and still actually get some work done - which isnt' easy when I have a poker problem on my brain). What I think needs to be done to answer this question is thus:

Let P1 = probability that at least one of my 9 opponents has one of the following hands: AA, KK, QQ, or JJ.

Let P2 = probability that at least one of my 9 opponents has AK or AQs.

(I don't know exactly how to calculate these probabilities yet - when I do, I will do the math).

Now, in case 1 I have an equity of around 0.194 according to twodimes (Jc Js vs 8h 8d). In case 2 I have an equity of around 0.556 vs As Kc and around 0.524 vs As Qs. For the sake of this post I'm going to simplify it all and just say that in case 2 my equity is about 0.540.

So the EV of this situation would be something like this.
EV = EV of case 1 + EV of case 2 + Fold equity
EV of case 1 = p1 (the probability of case 1) * [(17K+1K+2K)*0.194 - 17k*(1-0.194)]

EV of case 2 = p2 * [(17k+1k+2k)*0.54 - 17k*(1-0.54)]

EV of fold = (1-(P1+P2))*(1k+2k)

EVtotal = (P1 * 20k * 0.194) + (P2 * 20k * 0.54) + (1-(P1+P2))*3k - (P1 * 17k * (1-0.194)) - (P2 * 17k * (1-0.54))

This takes into account our fold equity and everything so if the above equity is > 0 then pushing is better than folding and if it's < 0 then pushing is worse than folding. This doesn't take into account the future value of my chips, but I don't know how to take this into account.

I'm still not convinced by raising and folding to a reraise as suggested in this thread (although I'm not completely against this line at this time either). I think I'm even more confused about how to play this hand now then I was at the table.