KQs river raise??

bottomset · #1 12-13-2005, 02:09 AM

BB is loose(60ishVPIP) fairly passive preflop, aggressive postflop
UTG is very loose kinda spastically aggressive

good river raise?
plan if 3bet?

PokerStars 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (7 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, UTG folds, Hero raises

milesdyson · #2 12-13-2005, 02:19 AM

i wouldn't do it. this really looks like a set or T9 too much for me. i mean i guess Q7 is possible, but is he betting any other hand on the flop that is going to bet/3-bet the turn?

if 3-bet i really think it's just a flat out marginal call probably between -0.2 and 0 EV.

bottomset · #3 12-13-2005, 02:21 AM

86, 87, 76, some Qx hands(likely with clubs)

milesdyson · #4 12-13-2005, 02:24 AM

so he's not 3-betting the flop with Qx[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] but he is bet/3-betting the turn? that seems a bit odd, but if he will do this with 86, 87, 76, then it seems very close. i admit that part of me simply does not want to raise because of getting 3-bet.

#5 12-13-2005, 02:38 AM

This also looks like a Qx that picked up an OESD on the turn. I've seen that played this way a lot. I think a river raise is not horrible, and may even be good.

Just a quick thinky think tells me that two pair isn't vastly more frequent here than a set or straight. But think about this. If he flopped a great hand, he would've gone for the turn check-raise, most likely. This suggests that the 7 improved his hand. That discounts the possibilities of a flopped set.

However, for a river raise to be profitable, you need to be good enough of the time to cover the times you're 3-bet by a set or straight. That means you need to be beating over 2/3 of the hands.

I doubt you are.

LoaferGee12 · #6 12-13-2005, 04:37 AM

I think this raise boils down to "Is he aggressive enough to 3-bet the turn with a mere 2-pair". If i didn't know this, then my standard would be to just call the river. I really think he's got a straight here. However, if you have the above read, I'd go ahead and raise/call a 3-bet.

kapw7 · #7 12-13-2005, 05:01 AM

I think this is a good value river raise. You need to be 55% ahead. He can easily have Qxs or Kxs or 2 pair a lot of times.

thesharpie · #8 12-13-2005, 05:24 AM

I think we need to be good abit more than 55%. I think he's almost always 3 betting better hands and I don't see him 3 betting worse hands after getting raised on every street unless he's an idiot. Then again, he looks like an idiot.

Peter Harris · #9 12-13-2005, 07:19 AM

yeah i like the river raise, call a 3bet.

#10 12-13-2005, 07:58 AM

Everybody raising this turn? I would probably have called turn and raised river. :/