|
|
#21
10-04-2005, 01:06 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SDG/STL
Show me your reasoning and math and I'll show you mine. Although a lot of my thinking has to do with a worn out pitching staff.
To beat a winning team (albeit slight) in a series 60% of the time is quite a task. In 2 series they split this season. In games SD was actually ahead. So they don't have a 40% shot? Keep watching ESPN! 
|
|
#23
10-04-2005, 02:14 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: SDG/STL
[ QUOTE ]
A 60/40 split for each game (+/- 150) should yield a series line of around +/- 215, according to the math. The actual line is over a hundred points off of that. [/ QUOTE ] Right. My estimate was off. I was lazy and didn't feel like going into Excel to use the BINOMDIST function. I did this test a couple weeks ago but must have used a number a bit higher than 60% (afterall, StL pitching fell apart and SD played decently down the stretch). Still, -215 is far from -150. It's a good bet though.
|
|
#24
10-04-2005, 02:56 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AL Serieses
I very rarely say things like this, but I think getting the Angels to win the ALDS at +130 or better is ridiculously +EV. If you take the same opponent and call them anything but the Yankees, Anaheim is a -130 favorite instead of dog.
|
|
#25
10-04-2005, 03:07 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AL Serieses
[ QUOTE ]
I very rarely say things like this, but I think getting the Angels to win the ALDS at +130 or better is ridiculously +EV. If you take the same opponent and call them anything but the Yankees, Anaheim is a -130 favorite instead of dog. [/ QUOTE ] So is my +150 a good deal [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
|
|
#26
10-04-2005, 05:40 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AL Serieses
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I very rarely say things like this, but I think getting the Angels to win the ALDS at +130 or better is ridiculously +EV. If you take the same opponent and call them anything but the Yankees, Anaheim is a -130 favorite instead of dog. [/ QUOTE ] So is my +150 a good deal [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] lol, kyro, loving the avatar and loc [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]
|
|
#27
10-07-2005, 06:17 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: AL Serieses
would be fun if chisox get to finish this off tonight!
4-2 as of now, white sox just stranded two big runners.. bottom of 6th now... oh snap, manny with his second solo shot on the night, make that 4-3 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
