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#11
10-03-2005, 03:17 PM
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SDG/STL
Consider the starting IP comparison:
Cardinals Carpenter 241.2 Marquis 207.0 Mulder 205.0 Suppan 194.1 Morris 192.2 Padres Peavy 203.0 Lawrence 195.2 Williams 159.2 Eaton 128.2 Stauffer 81.0 Astacio 59.2 Padres are considerably more well-rested. Also consider that Al Reyes was injured for the rest of the season in the season-ender for the Cards. Reyes is without a doubt the Cards' best middle reliever, and possibly their best reliever overall. He was having one hell of a season, 2.15 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and .177 BAA. That injury severely weakens the Cardinals bullpen. With an overworked starting rotation to begin with, this only helps SDG's chances in this series. +325 is looking better and better by the minute. 
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#12
10-03-2005, 03:21 PM
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Re: SDG/STL
Padres
Peavy 203.0 Lawrence 195.2 Williams 159.2 Eaton 128.2 Stauffer 81.0 Astacio 59.2 With the exception of Peavy, who is a stud, the Padres Starting Rotation is garbage.
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#13
10-03-2005, 04:46 PM
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Re: SDG/STL
[ QUOTE ]
With the exception of Peavy, who is a stud, the Padres Starting Rotation is garbage [/ QUOTE ] Astacio has been hot the last 2 months and they have a very good pen. As Johnson/Schilling and the Dbacks will tell you you 2 hot pitchers is plenty! Nobody complains about Bostons pitching and they are the suck. They hit a little better than SD though! The 2 AL series should be very entertaining to see if the 2 speed/pitching/defense teams can beat the 2 thumper teams. The lines say no but of course I think the lines are wrong [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] All 4 series are coinflips in the crapshoot of playoff baseball and especailly with the short (5 game) opening round.
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#14
10-03-2005, 04:58 PM
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Re: AL Serieses
Looking at Peavy tonite and Angels at 8.75-1 to win WS, still shopping on that one.
Naj
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#15
10-03-2005, 05:10 PM
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Re: SDG/STL
Mr B, you are the man when it comes to betting baseball, but you can't be serious that SD/STL is a coinflip? Would you bet SD at +170?
I'm taking SD in Game one. If they win, it's STL on the adjusted line for the series. STL in 3 or 4 IMO. PS: I agree with MrB 95% of the time [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#16
10-03-2005, 05:29 PM
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Re: AL Serieses
[ QUOTE ]
Peavy +167 in game one? Wow....this one I'll play... [/ QUOTE ] Tue 10/4 901 San Diego Padres J. Peavy +1.5 -146 ML +171 OVER 7.5 +108 10:05 AM 902 St Louis Cardinals C. Carpenter -1.5 +136 ML -179 UNDER 7.5 -118 Thats on Pinny right now.. I usually wait when betting the dogs until close to game start when possible, its usually worth it! Not sure I'm going to be on this one yet or not, But I think if I can get to +175 or higher I might give Peavy a shot [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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#17
10-03-2005, 06:04 PM
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Re: SDG/STL
No StL should be a -150/-175ish fav but not really much more than that. Cards pitching is in very shaky territory right now and despite SDs barely winning record they can play. They won the season series and actually went 3-1 in StL. The line is a joke and pure value. SD and Peavy offer great edge in game one as well.
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#18
10-03-2005, 06:19 PM
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Re: SDG/STL
[ QUOTE ]
No StL should be a -150/-175ish fav but not really much more than that. Cards pitching is in very shaky territory right now and despite SDs barely winning record they can play. They won the season series and actually went 3-1 in StL. The line is a joke and pure value. SD and Peavy offer great edge in game one as well. [/ QUOTE ] I agree...I posted on this a few days back. As a Cards fan and someone who watches 90%+ of their games, I have a few observations. Carpenter has fallen off. His fastball velocity is down and the ball isn't breaking as sharply. Morris as the 3rd starter is a joke. His fastball has been topping out at 89 lately! He usually hangs at least one or two of his 12 o'clock to 6 o'clock curves every start in the past 6 weeks. He also cannot go past 6 with any authority. The injury to Reyes will compound this effect. Having Marquis or Suppan in the pen will help, but the postseason is not the time to find out if a revamped bullpen will work. On the positive side, Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker are back and hitting. Pujols got out of his slump before the season ended, and Edmonds is looking quite good lately. The Cards do have some playoff experience and are hungry for what that's worth. I also question the Padres ability to manufacture runs in playoff games. The Cards are the favorite, but anything more than -225 is too damn much.
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#19
10-04-2005, 12:50 PM
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Re: SDG/STL
[ QUOTE ]
No StL should be a -150/-175ish fav but not really much more than that. [/ QUOTE ] Cmon now. -150? That's not even remotely close to a fair line. The Padres are one of the worst postseason teams ever. -150 is a line that you would expect for a SINGLE game between the Cards and Padres - given randomized starters and home field. -250 is closer to the actual line, IMO.
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#20
10-04-2005, 12:53 PM
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Re: SDG/STL
[ QUOTE ]
-250 is closer to the actual line, IMO. [/ QUOTE ] Why is that? Would you normally lay -250 on Carpenter vs. Peavy? Have you looked at the last five starts of each? How often do you think the Card win this matchup?
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