Smack dab in the MIDDLE

[mrbaseball]

I usually don't post this kind of stuff but I'm semi-bored at work.

Philly +1.5 runs -137
Atlanta -118

I'm hoping for an Atlanta one run win obviously. The math goes like so. I am assuming a typical 27% chance of a one run game on a coinflipish type of matchup.

So I make the following assumptions:
Atlanta wins by one = 13.5% of the time
Atlanta wins by 2 or more = 38.5% of the time
Philly wins = 48% of the time
Ballpark figures but close enough I think (I have fair value at +-106 Atl). So this is how $100/$100 bet would work:
200(.135)= 27
-37(.385) = -14.25
-18(.48) = -8.65
So my expected return is $27-14.25-8.65 = $4.10

Not great but positive and these kinds of bets are low risk and high reward. I just love hitting the longshots!

Now resume football blathering [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[whipsaw]

I actually think your assumptions are extremely conservative. This is a much more +EV bet than just 4%. I estimate your chances of hitting this at closer to 20% than 13.5%.

[mrbaseball]

I made them very conservative on purpose for the explanation and arithmetic but yeah I kinda like this one [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 20% is too high but I do think it has a nice positive expectation.

[mrbaseball]

Forgot to add the weather risk which is that runlines are treated like totals meaning they must have a completed game. So if its a rain shortened game you can take it in the shorts.

This has never happened to me and I have played a lot of these middles. Just wanted to make sure everyone understood this (in case they make this or similar plays)

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually don't post this kind of stuff but I'm semi-bored at work.

Philly +1.5 runs -137
Atlanta -118

I'm hoping for an Atlanta one run win obviously. The math goes like so. I am assuming a typical 27% chance of a one run game on a coinflipish type of matchup.

So I make the following assumptions:
Atlanta wins by one = 13.5% of the time


[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is you are making the assumption that Atlanta wins half the time the game is decided by 1 run.

Atlanta is on the road, which makes them LESS likely to win games decided by 1 run. Home teams win more often by 1 run because they stop the game whenever they take the lead in the bottom of the 9th or later. Games which would turn into 2+ run victories end up being 1-run victories because of this.

[DougOzzzz]

To back this up with statistics, home teams are 16210-10469 in games decided by 1 run from 1960-2003 for a winning percentage of .608 compared to a record of 30767-29800 in games decided by 2+ runs for a winning percentage of .508.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
home teams are 16210-10469 in games decided by 1 run from 1960-2003

[/ QUOTE ]

Great info to have! It would be nice to know the figures on road favorites/home dogs? But I see and agree with your point.

I know you will say this is random but so far this season 12 of ATLs 22 1 run wins (54%) were on the road and 12 of Phillys 20 1 run losses (60%) were at home.

I think the handicap of the game is important too with significant weight but as a general rule what you state is important to consider for these kinds of wagers.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]

I think the handicap of the game is important too with significant weight but as a general rule what you state is important to consider for these kinds of wagers.

[/ QUOTE ]

The handicap matters. Better teams win 1-run games more often. Also, high scoring games result in 1-run decisions less often.

The total was set at 10 runs for the game - so it was expected to be relatively high scoring.

My formula for % of games decided by 1-run is the following:

.521445-.024*(Mean runs per game)-.01*(mean run differential). It's not a perfect formula since the actual graph is not linear; but it is a reasonable estimate.


Plugging in 10.5 for mean RPG (mean will be higher than the median of 10) and 0.1 for mean run differential, I get 26.77% of games decided by 1 run. I get Atlanta winning almost 43% of these contests (since they are slightly favored, they should win more than the typical 39.2% of the time that road teams do). Thus I have them winning by exactly 1 run 11.5% of the time.