Is there a single person who would lay this hand down?

[RoyalSampler]

50c blinds, few limpers, then a $2.50 raise, then I reraise to $7.50 with pocket aces. After the raise my stack is a tad shy of $50. The initial raiser calls and we see a flop.

J 8 7 rainbow and he goes all in ($100)

I called in a second, figuring him for
a) KK 50%?
b) QQ 20%?
c) AKs bluff, low%

J's 8's and 7's beat me (yes and J8 etc. but really!?). I'm getting better than 1:1 odds and you would have to be the worlds biggest pussy cat to think you are behind here on average. Oh this is 50c/25c NL on UB.

I ask because he had 8's. And then went on to berate me for calling, saying I was stupid doing so with only 2 outs. I pointed out that was very true if I had known his cards. But what got me more confused is my friend says he'd have folded!? I cannot see how anyone could fold this. It is so obviously +EV to me. Or am I missing something? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Quercus]

I probably would have figured him for AKs, KK or QQ based on his pre-flop raise and call. I wouldn't expect a big call with anything less than big pocket pairs.

As soon as he went all in, I'd have laid them down though. Why? Because people call with all sorts of stuff that surprises me, and JJ isn't so far out of the realm of possibility that it could be excluded.

Unless you have particular knowledge of this player, I would put the odds of a bluff at less than 50%. If he's not bluffing, he's either really, really stupid or he has you beat.

Assuming he put you on AA-QQ or even AKs, which would be logical given your big pre-flop raise, I'd have to go with the idea that he had me beat.

His pre-flop call probably indicates that he believed the chances were high enough that you had AKs or AQs to make it worth the heads-up call.

--Quercus

[unagi]

depends how dumb he is. either, he put you on a high pair (correctly), and is now expecting you to put him on a bluff... or, you'll sometimes see people push this with AJ or something similar. however, i have run into my fair share of flopped straights and if there was a monotone board out there, i guess that could be possible as well. did you consider whether this player had been doing this kind of thing a lot, or this is the first time that he went all-in in the last 100 hands? things like that matter and are good to go off of.

[cornell2005]

yea your call is almost always right in that game. a hand better than yours should never ever push the flop there. thats liket he worst play possible. he is much much more likely to be making an ill advised bluff

[RoyalSampler]

The question can be simplified significantly:

I was laid approximately 6:5, so I need to 5:6, or 45% to win. If I am ahead I could still lose, so I need to be ahead approximately 50% of the time here, to break even.

So, do you think that it is more likely he has J's 8's or 7's than it is K's Q's AK? I would say no way.

a) Hammering trips like this is less likely (not impossible) but the usual instinct is to check. If he called the $5 for his implied odds, he needs my whole stack and all in is risky way to attempt that.
b) An overbet like that just screams over pair to me. I was
figuring the chance of seeing K's even higher than 50%.
c) Fearing trash hands is a perfect reason to call the all in. To same twit who plays AJ (example) preflop for $7.50 will probably go all in when he hits his J. But I wasn't considering this. I only mention it in response to your logic.

But I appreciate your points, I am just trying to open a dialog on the matter.

[RoyalSampler]

6-tabling [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] noread, only the generalizations I have formed of play at these tables, which is enough to get me by. Based on this 'read', yes he was dumb.

[gytten]

can't really lay that down. the only hand I could have him on, that would have you beat on that flop would have been JJ. (can't really understand why he would call a big reraise preflop with 88)

ul [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

laying down AA in that situation is just stupid(btw: if you ever get into a big pot with your friend, just go all-in on the flop, he can't do much unless he flops the nuts right? not with that attitude atleast)

[RoyalSampler]

Exactly what I thought! I hardly even considered the trip possibilities, other than if he'd called chasing his implied odds, going all in when he hits would be unusual, even I would say, less profitable.

[RoyalSampler]

Hahahahaahaha I think I'll have to show him this post now [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] sending the link at this moment... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] he doesn't play online anymore so I promise you no EV harm [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[SpiderMnkE]

I make this call every time.

Phil Hellmuth makes the fold every time.

I don't know who you should trust!!