any way to hedge my bet here? (NFL wild card)

cthomer5000 · #1 01-09-2005, 01:50 AM

A couple days a go I threw down a bet on a pretty ridiculous long-shot parlay bet. I took every road team (underdog) in this weekend's wild card games. I bet the moneyline in all instances.

A $7 bet to win $1,010.70. Hey, what the hell, right?

I expected the Rams to win today and they did. I thought the Jets had a fair shot to win today, and they did.

Now I'm halfway to a glorious payday at ridiculous odds.

Obviously if the Broncos do manage to pull off a huge upset and win the early game tomorrow, I place a pretty heft bet on Minnesota in the late game. That much is pretty clear to me (I could set up something like a 500 win if the Packers cover, 500 if Minnesota wins, or 1500 if the Pack win without covering).

But is there any way I can bet the early game to guarantee coming away with something? Indy on the money line is an absolutely terrible value (-550) and I'm genuinely concerned about them covering the spread becasue there defense is so afwul.

Any thoughts on what I could/should do here? I'm more interested in coming away with a decent amount of money than really rolling the dice on the big cash.

edit: maybe something involving the over/under or even total score prop bets?

Brain · #2 01-09-2005, 01:55 AM

I don't think you have to worry about the Colts covering. Their defense may be as porous as Michael Strahan's front teeth, but I take Peyton at home over Jake Plummer and 10 points any day.

cthomer5000 · #3 01-09-2005, 02:06 AM

Well, upon close inspection i can easily conclude that betting the Indy moneyline makes absolutely no sense. Teasing Indy with the over is looking pretty good to me right now (-4, 49.5 at 10/11)

ttleistdci · #4 01-09-2005, 02:11 AM

If you're looking to hedge by betting the first game, the best bet might be Indy -10. They have the obvious advantage with more offensive firepower plus they're playing at home on turf.
Their defense may be bad, but they do have one small advantage going into this game. They got to see Denver, who had to win to get in last week, run a lot of their best plays with their best players last Sunday. Indy, on the other hand, played mostly second stringrts and, from what I've heard, really didn't use a whole lot from their normal Peyton/James/Harrison/Wayne/etc. playbook.

I'm also thinking about the under at 56.5. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

cthomer5000 · #5 01-09-2005, 02:35 AM

wow, I must be tired because I completely fouled up the first post. Obviously I'd be betting on Green Bay in the late game since I have Minnesota in my parlay bet. My thought up there is based on a false premise... whoops.

Assuming I make it that far it brings up a fairly tough decision on what bet to make there.

cthomer5000 · #6 01-09-2005, 02:55 AM

edit, nevermind.

Easy E · #7 01-09-2005, 10:04 AM

If you think betting the Packers is a good bet, then make it. It has nothing to do with your gamble on the parlay.

Another way to look at it- won't you be upset to give up almost half of your miracle win if it comes in?

cthomer5000 · #8 01-09-2005, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, upon close inspection i can easily conclude that betting the Indy moneyline makes absolutely no sense. Teasing Indy with the over is looking pretty good to me right now (-4, 49.5 at 10/11)

[/ QUOTE ]

This was the bet I ended up going with. Worked out well.