KQs runs into super TAG

nomadtla · #1 11-10-2005, 05:23 AM

Villan is 16/11/6
a bit over agro but hasn't shown anything out of line either, seems to be a tag running hot.
Do you 3-bet that flop, do you even want to go to showdown here? If so how do you want to get there?
Coments on all streets welcome

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 3-bets, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (15.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, CO calls, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero ?

tyler_cracker · #2 11-10-2005, 05:38 AM

grunch

3-betting this flop doesn't do anything for you. CO is apparently never folding (3 cold preflop followed by 2 cold on the flop already), and Villain will 4-bet with both hands you beat (AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/AJ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/QQ/JJ) and hands you don't (AA/KK/AK/KQ).

So i would just call now and re-evaluate the turn. I donk most turns to prevent giving a free card (especially with CO hanging around), then call down. Villain might raise with QQ/JJ trying to knock out/charge CO.

thesharpie · #3 11-10-2005, 05:42 AM

I'd check/call the turn and bet the river. He seems the type to fire again on the turn with a pocket pair or something like A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and even if not he'll probably call a river bet with something like JJ. I don't like donking the turn since the pot will be like 13BB if he raises and I'd hate folding in a pot that big.

Edit: I didn't notice the 3rd guy cold calling on the flop. I kind of like a turn donk now since a free card is more disastrous than if we're heads up against a likely way behind hand, and the PRRer is probably les likely to raise unless we're way behind since he's got to worry about the other guy. Then again we'll be getting like 14-1 if he does raise, I'm guessing we have 3 effective outs if that happens.

nomadtla · #4 11-10-2005, 05:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check/call the turn and bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

bet/? the river. I can't see those stats raising anything we'd beat. Assuming turn and river are UI of course.

thesharpie · #5 11-10-2005, 05:56 AM

If it's still 3 handed I like a bet/fold on the river. I don't know if I could lay it down heads up getting like 15 to 1, but I think that's probably the best move, we've gotta put a bet in on the river and we're usually badly beaten when we check/call, so I guess bet/fold whether heads up or 3 way.

By the way, on the turn we have like 3.6 effective outs if he we donk bet and he raises and we put him on either AK, AA, or KK and ignore what the other guy has, so I don't really like donking there now as we'll have to call the raise.

elindauer · #6 11-10-2005, 06:37 AM

I like a 3-bet because

a) the raiser is aggressive enough that you beat a lot of his holdings

b) there's a 3rd player in the hand who you very likely beat, so it is not a time to get timid and give free / cheap cards, especially since you are now getting 2:1 on your raises for value

good luck.
eric

elindauer · #7 11-10-2005, 06:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
grunch

3-betting this flop gains a lot of value because CO is apparently never folding (3 cold preflop followed by 2 cold on the flop already), and Villain will 4-bet with both hands you beat (AQ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/AJ[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]/QQ/JJ) and hands you don't (AA/KK/AK/KQ).

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP?

I like that you are going to donk bet a lot of turns though, if you do choose to call.

-eric

elindauer · #8 11-10-2005, 06:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If it's still 3 handed I like a bet/fold on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your opponent is really aggressive. Are you sure you want to put yourself in a position to be outplayed for 1 bet on the river?

-eric

#9 11-10-2005, 07:22 AM

*grunch*

You have TPMK and 4-4.5 Outs if you are behind a K with a better Kicker and 6-6.5 Outs if you are behind AA. The Pot is huge so you won't protect your hand by reraising him. I would call the flop, lead the turn. If villain raises again und CO cold calls AGAIN, I guess your split Ks could be behind. I'd probably fold the Turn if I haven't improved then. Villain might be playing QQ or JJ aggressivly, hoping you had AQs or AQo or something like that since you didn't cap preflop. Without reads I'm more concerned about CO. He cold called 3 pf and 2 on the flop. Unless he is a poor player, he might have a draw or a good king and it looks like you aren't able to make him fold.

HouseCalls · #10 11-10-2005, 07:48 AM

*grunch*
Preflop - probably would not raise from early position here unless its very loose (6 or more outinely seeing flop) and passive game (and at least for this hnad it seems pretty aggressive)
Flop - You may be ahead although with two other players in at this price I'm worried about AA,AK,and KK with [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flush draw a posssibility but less likely given preflop action. If you are behind you probably have about 4.5 outs to a win (3Q,BDFD, not giving credit for K outs but counting the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] due to the hands I'm worried about). 4.5 outs makes you 9.2/1 to make the best hand even if you are behind. Call flop. Check/call if UI rest of way. Bet or check raise if improved.