home blackjack dealer, can i handle variance?

I would like to be a casual blackjack dealer just for fun with my friends.

Let us assume that all bets are $5. How many hands would I have to deal to have a 90% chance of coming out in the green? 95%? What if the size of the best varied randomly between 1 and 10?

My friends are all idiots and stay on 12 when i have a ten showing, so lets assume that i have a 5% advantage (Without card counting, isn't the bets a player can do about 1% below the casino?)


Thanks for the help,

lemme know if I need to be more specific about anything

-Grant

[SheetWise]

How many players? You say all bets are $5, but what do you really want as a range? $1 to $5, $1 to $10? I had a friendly game many years ago at a table in my house-- and would play seven spots with bets $1 up to $25. Guests came and left as they pleased, and I don't recall ever playing more than 2 hours in a night. Most were not good players. I won in 75%+ games, up/down within $2500.

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My friends are all idiots and stay on 12 when i have a ten showing, so lets assume ...

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... that they will all be in the game when you bust. Players will bet max when they're winning, and go back to min after a loss. It's possible (probable) at some point you will bust 5-10 times in sequence -- if your opponents are staying on 12, pay all 7 hands plus doubles/splits etc. at table limit ($25) -- then win one hand, and everyones back to $1. Some of them want to quit. You're stuck $1000-2000. It will happen. Enjoy it, encourage it, and you'll get it back.

[youtalkfunny]

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My friends are all idiots and stay on 12 when i have a ten showing, so lets assume ...

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... that they will all be in the game when you bust.

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You're saying that if you're the house, you'd prefer that they played according to the proper strategy???

Let's just keep this simple: tie goes to the dealer. You're players are idiots, they won't care.

You won't need $100 to book this game.

[SheetWise]

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You're saying that if you're the house, you'd prefer that they played according to the proper strategy???

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Of course I'm not saying that. What I'm saying is that on a single table, the biggest fluctuations (for the dealer) are when you bust and pay the table. When players play well, there is less fluctuation for the dealer (as some will bust). If the players always play as if the dealer has a 6 up, you will lose to the entire table on a bust -- and collect losing hands otherwise. If you simulate it, you'll see more variance. I wouldn't book that game with 20 bets. Closer to 100. You'll make a fortune (relatively speaking).

thank you for your replies,

There are usually 4 or 5 players. Lets say I have a bankroll of $1000....What should I let the max bet be? I only care about making the game as +EV for me as possible, assuming I can handle the variance. So is $25 the optimal number for a max bet?

Also, what do you mean by "up/down within $2500"? Thats how much your bankroll fluctuated? From down 2500 to up 2500?

Thanks again,
-Grant

[SheetWise]

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Also, what do you mean by "up/down within $2500"? Thats how much your bankroll fluctuated? From down 2500 to up 2500?

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I recall swings that high (100 bets), yes. I'm not calculating or simulating it. That would be a comfortable range. I doubt all of the players are as bad as you state -- and I'm sure you'll get a lot of action below the max, so you're safe by my estimate. It's a lot different than poker -- you don't get to choose which hands to play. When you lose, it's not one bet -- it's like losing the pot in poker.

Later. I programmed a strategy for standing on 12, player stands on soft 17, no soft doubling, correct doubles on 9/10/11, player splits A's and 8's. 100k hands, almost 1100 hrs. of play with 5 players. Ran 3x, results -4.54,-4.22,-3.79.

Earning between $95 and $115 hr. with 5 players betting $5. Largest losing swing was $815 in 300k hands. 163 bets.

[PokerCat69]

Set the table limits to $5-$25.