#1
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I need some Help
Not sure if this is the correct forum or not, but a friend of mine asked me fold help with this and i'm not qualified to do the math. At least not with confidence. Can any body help? Here's the deal.
A local casino is offer the following blackjack promotion, and my friend was curious about the EV of each bet, and the EV of the promotion as a whole. for those of you that like to flex your math muscle, here's a good opportunity to do so and help out a fellow poster. To qualify for any of the below the player must place a $1 "bonus" wager. Payouts First card A $25 2 unsuited A's $100 2 suited A's $500 3 unsuited A's $1000 3 suited A's $2000 any 4 A's $4500 4 all red or all black A's $131000 Assume that to qualify you must get dealt the key cards in sequence. For example having your first card be a "K" and your next four be all black aces doesn't qualify. Assume a fresh 6 deck shoe. Obviously the odds will change as cards get exposed. Thanks in advance for any help. lf |
#2
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Re: I need some Help
[ QUOTE ]
3 unsuited A's $1000 [/ QUOTE ] Does this mean they have to be 3 different suits, or just not all the same suit? If the former, then 3 aces with exactly 2 of the same suit only wins the prize for 2 aces. Is that right? [ QUOTE ] any 4 A's $4500 4 all red or all black A's $131000 [/ QUOTE ] Does this mean that we win both prizes if we have 4 all red or 4 all black? For that matter, do 4 aces mean we also win the prize for 1 A, 2 aces, and 3 aces? [ QUOTE ] Assume that to qualify you must get dealt the key cards in sequence. For example having your first card be a "K" and your next four be all black aces doesn't qualify. [/ QUOTE ] Does this mean that each sequence must start with your first card and have no intervening cards? |
#3
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Re: I need some Help
[ QUOTE ]
Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3 unsuited A's $1000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Does this mean they have to be 3 different suits, or just not all the same suit? If the former, then 3 aces with exactly 2 of the same suit only wins the prize for 2 aces. Is that right? [/ QUOTE ] It means that they aren't all the same suit, but dont have to all be different suits. [ QUOTE ] Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- any 4 A's $4500 4 all red or all black A's $131000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Does this mean that we win both prizes if we have 4 all red or 4 all black? [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure, but the big one is the total prize pool, so i'm going to assume that there is a "can only win one bonus" rule. [ QUOTE ] Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Assume that to qualify you must get dealt the key cards in sequence. For example having your first card be a "K" and your next four be all black aces doesn't qualify. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Does this mean that each sequence must start with your first card and have no intervening cards? [/ QUOTE ] Thats correct. Do you think you can help with this, i'd really appreciate it. thanks, lf |
#4
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Re: I need some Help
The $25 payout for 1 ace alone makes this postive EV. All the payouts together have a positive EV of $2.68.
Since we can only win one prize, I multiplied the probability of making each hand with 1-3 aces by the probability that the next card is not an ace. The probabilities sum to exactly 1, so we can have confidence that they are correct. First card A $25: 24/312*(311-23)/311*25 = $1.78 2 unsuited A's $100: 24/312*18/311*(310-22)/310*100 = $0.41 2 suited A's $500: 24/312*5/311*(310-22)/310*500 = $0.57 3 unsuited A's $1000: [24/312*23/311*22/310*(309-21)/309 - P(3 suited aces)]*1000 = $0.36 3 suited A's $2000: 24/312*5/311*4/310*(309-21)/309*2000 = $0.03 any 4 A's $4500: [24/312*23/311*22/310*21/309 - P(4 all red or black)]*4500 = $0.11 4 all red or all black A's $131000: 24/312*11/311*10/310*9/309*131000 = $0.33 No prize: (312-24)/24*(-1) = 92% * (-1) = -0.92 Total EV: $2.68 |
#5
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Re: I need some Help
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First card A $25 [/ QUOTE ] Are you positive that it is any ace? The Muck has a progessive jackpot that has this as a bonus bet, but the first payout is for your first card being a BLACK ace. |
#6
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Re: I need some Help
Thanks so much for that. I forwarded it to my friend, he really appreciated it.
lf |
#7
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Re: I need some Help
I found the place where this game is offered and the table was full with a waiting list [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
One thing that the OP did not mention: the table minimum is $25. I don't think that it is enough to offset the +EV of the "Aces" bet, but it does make it harder to play for a long time if you do not have a big enough bankroll. |
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