Bellagio 15-30: What hand do I have?

[Dynasty]

This Bellagio 15-30 hand got discussed a little at the table so I thought it might be interesting to post it. The game has been very loose and passive. When pre-flop raises are made, they are getting called by every hand imaginable.

The hand:

Two loose EP limpers (the first is ridiculously loose) to me. I'm in MP and limp with ????. An LP and the Button also limp. The Small Blind completes and the Big Blind checks his option. 7 players see the flop for 1 bet each.

The flop is: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Small Blind checks. Big Blind bets. Both EPs call. I raise. LP calls. Button folds. Small Blind folds. Big Blind calls. First EP folds. Second EP calls. Four players see the turn with 8 big bets in the pot.

The turn is: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

The action is checked to me and I bet. LP calls. Big Blind folds. EP folds. Two players see the river.

The river is: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I bet and my opponent calls.

[Homer]

I'm surprised that so far almost everyone thinks you flopped quads. FWIW, I went with 77.

-- Homer

[skp]

I voted for Quads. Slowplaying with Quads makes little sense when there is a bet and two callers already on the flop. If you limp that makes it 4 guys (at least) staying for the turn and everyone's guard will be up. Besides, when you raise the flop, very few players already in for one bet will fold. They will call the raise and the one or two others with 2 overcards or a pocket pair may continue callling being on later streets suspicious that you don't have a ten.

Incidentally, if everyone had checked to Dynasty, then I would suggest that he too check but this situation is different with a bet and two calls.

If Dynasty had 77, the river bet would be really nutty. Even his flop raise and turn bet would be questionable given the number of players in the hand.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Call me a sucker for the obvious, but I went with AJo. With possibly the best hand out, and 6 clean outs if he's not ahead, he raises the flop to knock out other cards that could pair up on the turn, so he's likely ahead on the turn with just A high still.

The A comes on the turn, and the rest is easy from there, since quads would raise him at some point you'd think.

[skp]

With a bet and two callers, I would be convinced that AJ is not ahead at the moment. I would further be convinced that I am not going to get a full house to lay down by raising. I amy even be hesitant to believe that I would be in the lead if I paired a Jack or Ace on the turn (on that score, it's better to pair the Jack as pairing an Ace is more likely to lead to a split pot).

In short, with AJ, I would probably call or muck on the flop (probably muck). Also, If I stayed on, then checking the turn once the Ace comes is probably a better play than betting. Firstly, you avoid getting raised by Quads if it's out there. Secondly, you might induce the guy behind to bet when he is drawing dead. Thirdly, you might allow those opponents who would fold to a turn bet to draw for free and hopefully they get there on the river only to be DOA.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Thanks for the explanation skp. You rule.

I guess my biggest mistake was not registering that the two EPs called the original bet on the flop.

[brad]

i put you on like 88 or so (before i saw choices) think u played it well i know you like to value bet river so i dont think that detracts from chances you had 77 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jeff V]

first hand that popped in my mind was 77.

[Gooch]

i'd say you have As Jh. i like your play on the flop if someone 3 bets it then you easily can get away from your hand. when you hit on the turn you can continue to bet out.

[felson]

I agree with Homer -- I think you might have let others in on the flop if you had quads. AJ, KQ and you probably raise preflop. I don't think you'd raise the flop with 98, there's no point bluffing so many callers. I vote for 77.