Why Jacksonville Must Cover! - Page 3

Gooch · #21 09-30-2004, 06:35 AM

why i am a sucker and betting Indy. Jax 3 4th down conversions and a td reception caught out of the endzone vs Buffalo with no time remaining(yes i had buffalo -2.5) Q. Griffin fumble to end the game with Denver in FG range(no i didnt have Denver) McNair bruised sternum(yes bad excuse but i needed one) yes it tells me Jax defense keeps them in the ball game but if Jax gets behind and i think they will, they dont have the offense clicking enough to catch Indy.

jwvdcw · #22 09-30-2004, 05:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am simply saying that usually if it is to good to be true it is. If a legitmate wagering facility such as Vegas offered even money on you to beat Tiger Woods at golf. Everyone would put their money on Tiger. But why? Why is Vegas offering even money? That is what you have to ask yourself before you place a wager. There is usally a weird line that doesnt make sense every two to three weeks. When you find it you have to exploit it. By the way if Vegas put the bet up against you and Tiger(You getting no strokes/ 18 holes) I would bet on you to win. I dont even give a [censored] if you have never played the game before. Because obviously someone knows something I dont!!!!!!!!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Your mistake is that the line is not 'too good to be true.' You seem to have left out defensive stats when you were showing how Indy was so much better...I think if you included those you'd see that these are 2 very evenly matched teams.

jwvdcw · #23 09-30-2004, 05:02 PM

bottom line: this line is just about right. You totally ignore the fact that Jacksonville has one of the best defenses in the league.

craig r · #24 09-30-2004, 05:29 PM

it is "just about right." but, i think the books are shading a little towards JAX on this one because of the hook.

craig

JesusSmurf · #25 10-01-2004, 12:30 AM

I didnt ignore the fact. With their stellar defense, Jax still has the worst looking offense behind Cleveland and Cincy(no offense to Rudi) in my eyes. That said Indy has one of the best looking offenses in the league. Peyton doesnt have a go to guy he has 5 go to guys(Harrison, Wayne, Stokley, Pollard, James). Jax doenst have an offense, it is that simple. Jax looks like absolute chit on offense. That is why every signle person that reads on this site has their money on Indy. Not because of Jax defense, but because of Indy's offense. All novices, like I said, will have their money on Indy. And all novices will lose their money this weekend when Jax covers.
That is all! Jesus

craig r · #26 10-01-2004, 01:08 AM

I agree with you that the sharp money has not come down on Jax yet, and that it is now square money on the side of IND.

craig

$DEADSEXE$ · #27 10-01-2004, 02:02 AM

How much do you have riding on Jacksonville Jesus?

JesusSmurf · #28 10-01-2004, 02:40 AM

Dead I will be honest with you I do not bet wads of money on any game no matter how much I like it. Because the bottom line is there is no guarantees. By far this game is no the lock of the century by any means. I have not wager yet, because I am hoping the line moves to 4.5, if and when it does, I plan on mixing Jax with a couple 2 game parlays as well as a nice single bet. And for my sake I hope to jesus they cover, because it seems that I have made a big stink about this game. If they dont cover, the flame thrower will definetley be coming my way. Thanks Craig for your continued support. How much you putting on the game Craig?

craig r · #29 10-01-2004, 04:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How much you putting on the game Craig?

[/ QUOTE ]

I will be betting 1 unit on this game. I don't see any reason to go overboard with it. You can get 4.5 at one spot I know right now. I am hoping it will move even higher (it should...more action on the fav saturday).

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks Craig for your continued support

[/ QUOTE ]

I just think it is a good pick. But, not for the same reasons. I still don't think this line is as far off as you think it is. I would not consider this even close to a "trap" game. IND is always going to get a lot of public money, which will skew the line and make betting on them more profitable.

[ QUOTE ]
If they dont cover, the flame thrower will definetley be coming my way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't worry about that. It is one game and does not show your ability in any way. I think you are on the right side this game (if there is a right side): home dog, divisional rival, public team, etc.... And once again if there is a right side you are still probably only 54% to hit. So, anything can happen.

Craig

ihaterivers · #30 10-01-2004, 04:52 AM

Don't forget about the inevitable "emotional letdown" that seems to come after big wins. Jax's win against Tennessee last week was a HUGE win for the team considering their recent lack of success on the road and against Tennessee in general. They now have a 1 game lead up on Indy in the division and Indy will not want to drop 2 games back. Jax will be fired up at home but will they be able to sustain that intensity for 4 quarters while their secondary is chasing around Harrison and crew? This game may stay close for a while but look for Indy to pull away. I'm always put off by 3.5 point line so I will probably just make a nice wager on the money line.