Start of sessions

[winky51]

Is it me or does this happen to everyone.

Id say 4 of 5 sessions I play I start out losing. Sometimes 3-4 BB per 100 then I catch up.

Bad beats, better hands (KK vs AA).

Is there some minor variance theory to cover this?

Very few times I start off like a rocket winning tons of money.

[tinhat]

Not just you; 7-9x/10 I start off by going in the hole (immediately) and spend the next N mins working back to 0. Frustrating because of the realization that that potential profit time is now lost (times 2).

What I don't get is why good "luck" doesn't come in the same amount as bad - even-steven. Seems like good "luck" is this little shimmering flicker that lasts just long enough to notice it; then just as quickly it's gone...

Mike

[winky51]

I suspect its that since you are new to the tables you have no info on the other players. That slight disadvantage can cost you. You dont know whos the fish, who is the TAG thats has been unlucky, who is the average player, the calling station, and so on. So your plays are standard and you either miss bets or lose bets to them.

Like you have TP medium kicker and the LAG at the table decides to bluff you on the turn with nothing. You might fold to the unknown, but if you realized what the 40% VPIP, 22% PFR, 3.5 TAF does youd call him down.

Of course a little loss might make you tilt a little, and then it avalanches.

Tonight I started with my good hands cracked by fish. down $180 in 30 mins. After 30 mins the back to build up started from the slump.

Just hate it that it happens. I usually seem to win in the end but yea it sucks always starting down my sessions. No even-stevens as you put it.

But then again it does not take much variance to shift you 1 BB/100 in earnings. I'd say tonight $100 of that lost were my mistakes. I take breaks every 2 hours. WSD% 42% tonight, BLEK!

[Vincent Lepore]

Do not forget that whenever you enter a new game you must initially put money in play involuntarily (blind(s). Next remember that whenever you do put money in voluntarily that you are almost never a huge favorite to win the hand. In fact if there are more than one opponent which is almost always the case you may be a favorite against each opponent but a dog against the field. These are just a few reasons why you might start out losing on a lot of sessions even though you are a winning player.

Vince

[MikeBandy]

[ QUOTE ]
Id say 4 of 5 sessions I play I start out losing.

[/ QUOTE ]
When we’re in the zone, we’re in a state of focused attention or energy. It’s a special place where performance is enhanced.

One way to get into the zone is to perform for a little while. However, a heart surgeon who starts work at 6:00 a.m. needs to be in the zone immediately. The surgeon will learn to get there while scrubbing. Likewise, poker players can establish a routine to enable us to get to that special place. Rushing to our tournament tables isn’t conducive to our goal.

I think that’s maybe why Norman Chad says to always fold your first hand at a poker table – it’s part of the routine. Of course, he also says that sometimes you’re forced into playing that hand.

Yeah I agree, it just a certain placebo that we some how aquire to put us in a state of zen. But with the KK AA pre flop i just go all in anyway cause they think im bluffin and they can call and your winning right there and just hope nothin helps them.

[AaronBrown]

No, it does not happen to everyone. If it consistently happens to you, it's a leak that can be fixed.

However, you may be misled by hindsight. Every poker session has ups and downs. It's highly unlikely you will be up for the entire session, just as a baseball team rarely leads its division every day of the season. At the end of the session, however much you won in the end, you will almost always be able to look back and remember a point at which you were a net loser.

For example, suppose you flip a coin with someone 1,000 times. Even if you win by the end, you expect to be down by 12 flips on average at some point before the end (if you lose, you expect to be down 37 flips at some point). Only about 5% of the time will you never be behind.

[tinhat]

[ QUOTE ]
No, it does not happen to everyone. If it consistently happens to you, it's a leak that can be fixed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? If we won >= 50% of the hands we play maybe you have a point. In the long run no one wins at anywhere near that rate; therefore IMM it's impossible to say that losing when sitting down "is a leak". If you have a "fix" for this "leak" I'd like to be proven wrong...

Mike

[AaronBrown]

I was not precise. If your win rate during, say, the first hour of play is consistently less than your average win rate, that is a problem to be addressed.

However, as both of us said in different ways, it is usually the case that there will be some point during the play when you are down. So it's not a leak if you find that 90% of the time you lose money on the round of hands, or if 90% of the time you find yourself down at some point during the first hour.

[winky51]

I did a lot of thinking about this. I continue to almost always start off down then come back up later within the hour. I think its partially because of the following.

1. your image is not set.
2. you have no information on your opponents.
3. you really can't bluff.

I think #2 is the most important. I know when I play if I have a read on a player, fish, LAG, TAG, I alter my play to each player. Some fish I will always fold without a strong hand to a raise, some I will always call just about because they bluff so much. When facing unknowns you don't know anything so you play incorrectly against specific players. I have seen players bluff the new guy at the table or raise on the turn top pair with crap kicker when I hold top pair top kicker or something similar.

All this extra information is what makes a solid player go 2+ BB per 100. If rake was taken out I would be profitable more than 50% of the time starting out within the 1st hour. Since you have to overcome the rake and lack information on your players you technically make mistakes. Thus lose money.

Just my theory. I expect to start off losing so it never affects me. The other night I turned my -$50 within 20 mins to +$230 in 2 hours at 3/6.