Kentucky Derby

Holybull · #1 04-30-2003, 04:56 PM

Here are my thoughts on the Derby. I know they haven't drawn post positions yet, but that won't affect my picks.

I like Atswhatimtalkinabout. I'm banking on the blinkers giving him a little more early speed. He did stumble a bit out of the gate in the SA Derby, so he has an excuse in that race. He's been training well, and if there is any pace at all, he can pass them all down the stretch. The price should be very fair between 7-1 and 10-1.

All Peace Rules has done is win 5 of his 8 races. He's 2 for 2 this year. I don't think he absolutely needs the lead like many think. In both of his prep races he was extending his lead down the stretch. He can press behind the early leaders, and should be there at the end.

Brancusi is my longshot choice. He's much improved this year. Hopefully he can get a decent ride from his French jockey.

Empire Maker just has too many question marks to back at 8/5. His bruised foot is being downplayed by Frankel. He hasn't faced much adversity in any of his prep races, and the Derby is usually pretty rough. Hopefully he won't like the big crowd and the dirt being kicked in his face for the first time and will finish out of the money.

See you in Vegas this weekend!

Big Al · #2 04-30-2003, 05:23 PM

I think you always have to give a Bob Baffert horse a look. I forgot the one horse's name he has left in the race and I think he is considered a long shot, but if he shows some sharp works in his preps for the race, you always want to give a long look at him. I usually follow the Derby but this Saturday will be on the road so I havent paid much attention. You have any comments on Bafferts horse?-Big Al--

GOODBEATGUY2001 · #3 05-01-2003, 12:35 AM

I'm not sure of Baffert's lone entry of Indian Express with ML of 12-1 but I'd be leery of betting any favorite esp. one below 2-1. Although Frankel's Empire Maker looks strong based on its PPs, it may be overbet to offer any kind of value. At odds over 5-1, Frankel's other entry, Peace Rules may be a more attractive bet. Even though he still has to win a KD, I would not want to bet against a hot and excellent trainer.

Clarkmeister · #4 05-01-2003, 11:43 PM

I think the money that Empire Maker will take will make several horses in here playable. The strongest play appears to be Peace Rules, followed by Buddy Gil. I'll use those two on top with Empire Maker, Funny Cide and Brancusi underneath.

Basically I don't see a lot of true speed in here. Bafferts horse took an outside post when he could've been inside. That, coupled with some comments made by Bob lead me to believe they will rate. I think that puts Brancusi or Funny Cide on the chooch with a moderate pace and Peace Rules getting a perfect trip similar to his LA Derby race, which to me was by far the most impressive prep race any horse ran. EM will be too far back and should run up for a piece, but I think Frankel beats himself. Big chance for Buddy Gil to get a good stalking trip and get up as well. Won in a game effort despite bleeding through Lasix.

In short, I'd put win bets on both PR and BG, along with some tri and exacta wheels using the other horses I mentioned.

gl