gutshots in the big blind

William Jockusch · #1 02-24-2005, 05:43 PM

You have 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the big blind. UTG limps, everyone folds to the SB who completes, and you check.

The small blind checks the flop to you. What is your play if the flop is

(a) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

(b) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

(c) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

(d) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Paluka · #2 02-24-2005, 05:49 PM

I would not put in a dime on the flop with any of these.

William Jockusch · #3 02-24-2005, 07:00 PM

Really? Surely it is correct to semibluff at some flops.

steveyz · #4 02-24-2005, 07:04 PM

Depends on what kind of player UTG is. If he's loose, I'm not betting anything. Also, is he the type that likes to limp with Ax? However, all of these boards are a bit too coordinated for my tastes. If the board was something like J63 and I had 74 I might bet out as if I'm called by the BB or something, I likely have at least 7 outs and maybe 10 outs.

Nate tha' Great · #5 02-24-2005, 07:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Really? Surely it is correct to semibluff at some flops.

[/ QUOTE ]

Intuitively it seems that the Axx flop is a better one to bluff at than the Jxx flop, particularly if EP is the type who would have raised with an Ace.

That said, the risk-reward ratio here isn't all that attractive, as both a raise and a call probably compel you to put another bet into the pot, and there's something to be said for saving your aggression for better spots.

RogerM · #6 02-24-2005, 11:26 PM

I bet everyone of these situations and even if you dont have a gutshot. The chances are, he missed the flop, and the psychology of blind play on party poker is that the SB is so happy u didnt raise him and let him see the flop for $5 that he will almost always fold when missing and bet out when he hit anything. I think it is always correct to bet.

AlwaysWrong · #7 02-25-2005, 04:44 AM

Too bad about that pesky UTG limper.

I am surprised that everyone is so unwilling to bet these though.

1) As Roger said, the sb checking here probably means they're conceding. Not rock-solid certain, but pretty darn likely.

2) If the UTG player limped with a small pocket pair, these flops probably don't look great for him unless he hit his set.

3) You have to succeed 25% of the time for the bet to be worthwhile as a pure bluff.

4) If you decide it's profitable to call a raise or continue to bet on the turn that shouldn't make you less-inclined to bet, it should make you more inclinded to bet. It lowers the chance you need to succeed, not raises it. So let's knock it down to 20%, be conservative. Don't you think we'll make it 20% of the time on most of these flops?

TStoneMBD · #8 02-25-2005, 08:06 AM

i have a tendency to bet at alot of flops out of the blind with gutshot hands, like the ones in this thread. unfortunately, i know that it isnt right and that it is a leak of mine, so i dont know which answers are correct and which arent.

William Jockusch · #9 02-25-2005, 10:45 AM

I'm thinking Nate is right, it's correct to semibluff at the ace high flops, but not at the jack high flops, because:

(1) UTG is more likely to limp with a jack than an ace.
(2) Even if he doesn't have a jack, there are a ton of hands he will continue with on a J86 flop, i.e. QT, Q9, T9, 97, 99, 66, any eight, and possibly overcard hands such as KQ. When you add it up, this comes to most of his possible hands.

(3) The SB is also more likely to call on the Jack high flops, for similar reasons.

When you add all this up, I think it's much more important than the presence or absence of the flush draw.

Here is another BB gutshot I flopped in a similar situation today: a mid position player limped, the small blind completed, and I checked my 35o. The flop was A26. The SB checked, I bet, and they both folded.

Luke · #10 02-25-2005, 10:58 AM

I would not put in a dime on the flop with any of these.

Really? I'm pretty surprised by this. Isn't betting the first flop pretty standard, with or without a hand/draw?

It's a raggedy, ace high flop, and neither of your two opponents raised preflop. I think you take this down right then and there more than 1 in 4 times.

And IMO you're not necessarily obligated to bet the turn if you're called. It all depends on your specific opponents and the turn card, but I'd be leaning toward check/folding a lot of the time on the turn.

Luke