#1
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Bad River Push??
im playing 5 handed NL HE on pokerroom.com, .25-.50 blinds
Villain seems like a decent player (doesnt do anything too donkish), pretty solid I've been raising a ton of pots, reputation as a bit crazy? Folds to the villain on the button, raises to a dollar. I smooth call with A8s from SB, BB folds. Flop comes K-8-3 (rainbow) Hero checks Villain bets 1.50 Hero calls Turn: 8 Hero bets 1.50 Villain calls River: 2 Hero bets 4.75 Villain raises to 14.75 Hero moves all-in, Villian calls with K8 (eights full) the raise was like 20 or 30 more i think my first inclination was to smooth-call the bet, b/c i thought he had to have at least an 8, unless he was on a bluff in which case he wouldn't call a raise anyway. However, with the Ace kicker, i thought there was too good of a chance he had something like 8-9 or 8-7. I was concerned about K-K more than anything, but i thought because of my loose image i could move-in and get called by a smaller 8. What do you guys think? |
#2
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Re: Bad River Push??
meh, i'd probably just call the raise.
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#3
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Re: Bad River Push??
I think the turn and river lead are fine, but slow down when he raises. Unless you've seen him way overvalue 1 to trips, he's not 3-betting with much you beat.
His preflop raise with K8 is a bit loose as it's such a garbage hand. Generally speaking, when you lead the river, you're probably ahead. When he raises, things get muddy. When you 3-bet all-in, you're representing a big hand. Since you say he seems like a decent player, the only way he calls your reraise is if you're beat: KK, 33, 22, K8, 83, 82. Generally, I'd eliminate the last two and guess it's 33 or 22. |
#4
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Re: Bad River Push??
yeah he's a decent player, but despite that he's just a low-limit internet player. i wouldnt have pushed if i didnt feel he wouldnt call me with a smaller 8. so, for our purposes, lets assume he'll call with any 8 . . . is a push optimal in that case??
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#5
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Re: Bad River Push??
[ QUOTE ]
yeah he's a decent player, but despite that he's just a low-limit internet player. i wouldnt have pushed if i didnt feel he wouldnt call me with a smaller 8. so, for our purposes, lets assume he'll call with any 8 . . . is a push optimal in that case?? [/ QUOTE ] GIVEN he'll call you with any 8, it's simple math: Card-number of combinations You win: Q-4 J-4 T-4 9-4 7-4 6-4 5-4 4-4 --- 32 combinations You lose: K-3 3-3 2-3 --- 9 combinations You're 32:9 to win the pot. EDIT: even if you want to add in all the boats that beat you: KK - 3 33 - 3 22 - 3 You're still 32:18 to win. I think the most important point by far is figuring out whether or not he'll call with ANY 8. |
#6
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Re: Bad River Push??
Your assumption is not valid. Not all bad kicker 8's call here.
But if it is, you don't need us to tell you there are 10 non-boat 8's (one of which you split with) and 3 boat 8's calling you down, thus if he calls with any 8 it's profitable to push. Edit: you're also assuming any 8 is raising you on the river. You should assign higher odds to the boat 8's vs poor 8's given the raise on the river. |
#7
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Re: Bad River Push??
ok, he prob. wont call me with any 8
but its safe to assume he prob. doesnt have 8-2 through 8-4 or 8-5 so say, he can only have 8-7 through say, 8-Q. if he calls me with those hands, that's still 5*4=20 possibilities, making me 20 to 9 to win. if he only calls with 8-10 through 8-Q, i'm STILL 12-9 to win, although thats a lot closer... |
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