30/60 River Raise/Fold-to-3bet

PokerMike · #1 08-13-2005, 07:37 AM

Yes or no?

Villian is 29/5/1 after 102hands(filtered for 7-10players)

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (4 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (2 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (2 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB folds, UTG 3-bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7 BB

Jgents · #2 08-13-2005, 08:08 AM

I feel my advice will be seen inferior by higher limit players as I only play up to 10/20, so I'll withhold from any suggestions. But I have to say, when I read this hand I said to myself "Oh. Gosh. No."

PokerMike · #3 08-13-2005, 08:15 AM

The other 2 players aren't even going to call a single bet, so calling for overcalls has no merit.

Villian will call a raise with a K though, but will only 3bet a high flush/full. This is why i think this line is right, because you don't risk getting pushed off the hand often enough(against a guy with these stats anyway). The argument for calling is so that you don't want to get pushed off a better hand. So if you agree with the above points, why call?

Tall Kitchen · #4 08-13-2005, 08:41 AM

Assuming you were testing for a full house or high flush to avoid a pointless chip race, and thinking his river bet might be a bluff and that you might take it down on the end (if I'm off base, smack me), I have a question: Does that work? And if it does, how does it work? I mean, I try it all time holding a high card or small pair, and it seems to work sometimes. But when I do it, I'm just going on gut and I'm not sure if I'm winning or losing on it - is there a better way? It seems you had some history on your opponent. Is historical data on an individual opponent the only way to estimate the profitability of that move? Or am I missing the flick in all it's subtleness, as usual. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Jgents · #5 08-13-2005, 08:53 AM

If villain had a King, you wouldn't have made it to the river in the first place.

PokerMike · #6 08-13-2005, 08:53 AM

I think you can judge the opponent on stats. I just feel that an opponent with these stats wouldn't get out of line on the river for a 3bet very often, so thats not much of a worry. In any case, if you thought he was bluffing, the move is calling not raising , because your hand can beat a bluff and only a better hand will 3bet.

I think this works because of my opinion of his river 3betting range + his river 3bet-bluff frequency + he will probably call with a Q. If i'm off base on those assumptions then raise/fold is probably wrong.

PokerMike · #7 08-13-2005, 08:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If villain had a King, you wouldn't have made it to the river in the first place.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry i meant a Q

Trix · #8 08-13-2005, 09:22 AM

I think I pay off here, but it doesn´t look like that big a deal.
A8h-^6,J8-6h^2,JTh^1,T8-7h^2,87-6h^2,76-5h^2,65h^1, making it 16 hands you are beat by, though they prolly should be discounted a bit since he may not play all and he may bet some on the turn, you will know better. Since you are getting 7:1, you must be able to find 16/7 hands hands you beat: around 2.5 roughly and you split with 8 JT hands, the ones without both in hearts, so thats 4 right there, meaning you are at worst a 16:4 or 4:1 dog, which is plenty.

Edit: If he hardly ever 3bets JT on the end, then you can fold, I just can´t read that from the stats alone.

PokerMike · #9 08-13-2005, 09:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I pay off here, but it doesn´t look like that big a deal.
A8h-^6,J8-6h^2,JTh^1,T8-7h^2,87-6h^2,76-5h^2,65h^1, making it 16 hands you are beat by, though they prolly should be discounted a bit since he may not play all and he may bet some on the turn, you will know better. Since you are getting 7:1, you must be able to find 16/7 hands hands you beat: around 2.5 roughly and you split with 8 JT hands, the ones without both in hearts, so thats 4 right there, meaning you are at worst a 16:4 or 4:1 dog, which is plenty.

Edit: If he hardly ever 3bets JT on the end, then you can fold, I just can´t read that from the stats alone.

[/ QUOTE ]

He isn't 3betting with most of those flushes, do you disagree based on your *feel* of his stats?

Jgents · #10 08-13-2005, 09:36 AM

I'm embarrassed to say I didn't notice that you had a straight in this hand when I first commented. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] So you can understand my initial reaction to this.

Will have to say that I find your justification for this line intriquing. I do think though that if this is the type of opponent who doesn't 3-bet unless he has a flush or better, then he likely is also the type to fold to a re-raise in a small pot while facing possible trips or better when he himself has a Q or worse.