AK River. Pay this one off?

mmcd · #1 10-24-2005, 06:16 AM

Button is a 29/9/1.85 donk. His play can be a little on the weird/random side sometimes but I haven't seen him do anything hugely egregious postflop. MP2 is a pretty standard 20/12/1.6

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button raises, Hero?

jba · #2 10-24-2005, 12:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
His play can be a little on the weird/random side sometimes

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sometimes is more than 1/14 right?

it's hard to keep your VPIP around 29 coldcalling hands like A7 and A6, isn't it? It's pretty hard to see even A6 or 77 playing this way. If I can't really put him on a hand that beats me and you add in the weird/random comment, I really can't see folding this.

pay zee man heez money

#3 10-24-2005, 12:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Button is a 29/9/1.85 donk. His play can be a little on the weird/random side sometimes but I haven't seen him do anything hugely egregious postflop. MP2 is a pretty standard 20/12/1.6

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP2 raises, 2 folds, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, Button raises, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]
I strongly believe the villain has Ad7d or Ac7c or some other hand that beats one pair. I know he may make weird plays but hes raising this river after two people have committed money to the pot. This means the villain is not bluffing. Given the action of the hand I would strongly consider folding. The only reason to call here is if you think the villain is capable of value raising hands in this spot that you can still beat. Hands like AQ or AJ, but if he likes these hands that much he probably wouldve raised the turn. I think a fold is correct in this spot despite your descriptions of this opponent, your opponent would have to be known to do egregious things post flop to make calling correct in my opinion. By the way, this would be an easy river call if the other guy hadnt called your river bet, since now theres a chance the villain is bluffing, and you have the odds to snap a bluff.

Ryno · #4 10-24-2005, 01:18 PM

In some of the great AK blind debates of the past, I thought you were on the cold call side?

I'm paying off. You have MP2 beat and 1.85af with 29% VPIP is aggressive enough for me to believe that he can have a worse hand 1 time in 14. I might play AQ/AJ this way if I think SB has QQ/KK and is capable of bet-folding the turn.

mmcd · #5 10-24-2005, 04:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In some of the great AK blind debates of the past, I thought you were on the cold call side?

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I was wrong. I'll still flat call heads up out of the bb sometimes for deception purposes against certain players (as will I with AA KK etc.) but in multiway pots, not 3-betting is giving up way too much. Especially in a situation like this where you have a guy cold-calling with what figures to be a pretty bad hand.

mmcd · #6 10-24-2005, 04:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I strongly believe the villain has Ad7d or Ac7c or some other hand that beats one pair. I know he may make weird plays but hes raising this river after two people have committed money to the pot. This means the villain is not bluffing. Given the action of the hand I would strongly consider folding. The only reason to call here is if you think the villain is capable of value raising hands in this spot that you can still beat. Hands like AQ or AJ, but if he likes these hands that much he probably wouldve raised the turn. I think a fold is correct in this spot despite your descriptions of this opponent, your opponent would have to be known to do egregious things post flop to make calling correct in my opinion. By the way, this would be an easy river call if the other guy hadnt called your river bet, since now theres a chance the villain is bluffing, and you have the odds to snap a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I really doubt he is outright bluffing here anymore than 1-2% of the time. Obviously I'm usually beat here and this is a pretty standard fold against most opponents, but given that this guy has some weirdness in him and has taken some lines that really make no sense in the past (I don't remember any specific hands at the moment, but generally stuff like putting in a lot of action with a very marginal hand, then a few hands later check/calling down with a very strong hand on a non-threatening board) I'm wondering if he doesn't have AQ/AJ/AT/A9/A8 or even a ridiculously played KK 1 time in 14 here.

I paid him off and he had A7o as advertised. And MP2 was even nice enough to overcall his AQ.