A high OOP on an ugly board

[wheelz]

i really think betting the river is a waste.

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i really think betting the river is a waste.

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I agree. I don't play 50/100 but is a person's standard play on this river to raise with rags? It seems that betting this river would let the hands you beat fold and the hands that beat you raise, and you will call and it will cost you two bets. I would much rather check/call to induce a bluff.

Maybe you can induce bluffs by donkbetting at 50/100 though. I'm not sure.

[TStoneMBD]

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i really think betting the river is a waste.

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i also agree. i like the idea of value betting against a smaller ace, but with any risk of being bluffraised i dont like it. i think villain bets a worse hand very often, if not more often then he calls with ace high so theres more value in a checkcall especially with bluffraise possibility considered.

[mmcd]

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i really think betting the river is a waste.

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i also agree. i like the idea of value betting against a smaller ace, but with any risk of being bluffraised i dont like it. i think villain bets a worse hand very often, if not more often then he calls with ace high so theres more value in a checkcall especially with bluffraise possibility considered.

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What range of hands would you put me on when I bet that river card after check/calling the turn? I think he'd put me on AK/22/33/44/55/ on the thin value front or KQ/KJ/QJ that picked up a flush draw on the turn plus there's a very slight possibility that I have a monster that I played really weird. With 7.5 BB in the pot after I bet, I don't think he'll just meekly fold his hands that can't win a showdown (which is at least a fair portion of his range here), and like I said in an earlier post, he won't raise nearly as many hands for value as he will be bet for value, so it's not like in putting in 2 everytime I'm beat.

[TStoneMBD]

im folding A9/8/4/3/2 against you. im not going to just assume you have a somewhat oddly played KhQh.

[mmcd]

I don't know, when the action goes down this weird, I thing an aggro mid/higher limit player's gut reaction would be to raise rather than fold hands they can't showdown.

What hands would you value raise against me there?

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
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i really think betting the river is a waste.

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i also agree. i like the idea of value betting against a smaller ace, but with any risk of being bluffraised i dont like it. i think villain bets a worse hand very often, if not more often then he calls with ace high so theres more value in a checkcall especially with bluffraise possibility considered.

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I'm not talking about value-betting a smaller A. I'm talking about inducing a bluff raise

[TStoneMBD]

its very possible at this point that villain has an overpair that he didnt cap preflop. he could have smoothed the flop planning on raising the turn and whiffed. i would then value raise them on the river of course if i was him. i think youll also see me value raise AT and of course the sets and straights.

its difficult for me to tell you exactly how i would play against you because ive read a good enough number of your posts and feel i have a sense of your play. after you checkcall the turn and bet the river i would just about never put you on a bluff and would assume you intend to showdown. i dont think i would bluff raise you on this board, but of course i dont think youre exploitable enough to assume you would never fold to a raise.

if i was up against a fairly unknown tag however, i think its quite possible i would go for a bluff raise, but at 15/30 where i play these moves simply dont work as often. if i was playing higher i would have to impliment them into my game and im not sure what frequency is right for that.

i find it very interesting that you bet on this board to induce a bluffraise. i think that line of value is very thin. if im raised i would expect to be beat more often than not. i think it takes quite an impressive read to believe you would be ahead after villain raises. could you elaborate on your read in this case, because you didnt include that in your post. if villain is just the elusive 30/20 tag i dont think the play is nearly reliable enough to work as often as needed. i also dont hear experienced players at these limits talking about betting rivers with ace high to induce a bluff raise so unless they are holding information, your skills are very impressive or the line might not work as often as you think.

[mmcd]

I don't really think there's that good a chance that he has an overpair to the flop here. I'm pretty sure if he did, he would have raised the flop, because it would be so easy for me to put him on some kind of a draw or air and either play back or call him down. He could have a paired the board, he could have a hand containing a 9 or an 8 (possibly including a T), he could have KQ KJ etc. w/ or w/o a backdoor flush draw, he could have an underpair to the board that planned on raising the turn, or he could have air that he planned on raising on the turn.

When I check/call on the turn, he most likely puts me on a big A that's most likely going to showdown depending on what river card comes off, some sort of draw like A8, A9, Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or a 44/55 pair/draw combo.

The reason I think a river bet would likely induce a bluff raise is that if I had a made hand with which I'd be comfortable taking some heat, I'd have bet the turn and called down his (likely) turn raise. The turn check/call on that board followed by a river donk bet when the bottom card pairs looks so inconsistant/out of line I think he'd be inclined to take a stab with hands that can't beat my preflop 3-betting range in a showdown.

I think the key to this bet being +ev is that he probably won't raise an 8, 7, 22, 33, 44, 55. I'm already discounting him having an overpair on the flop at least somewhat, so mainly it comes down to him having a 6, a T, a boat, or air/busted draw, when he raises. Considering that some portion of the time, a 6 or a set will have raised the flop, and some of his hands that contain a T would have folded the flop, I think a busted draw/air is more likely than not when he raises the river.

Of course, there's some possibility he just folds the hands he can't showdown, but there's also the possibility that he just gives up and checks behind those hands when I check.

It's definately pretty thin (if it's even there at all), but looking at this hand after the fact, I think I might have missed a little value by check/calling the river.

[TStoneMBD]

very nice analysis. theres alot of food for thought there.