Your play here....

[adanthar]

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It should be pretty obvious that BB has 86 here about 95% of the time.

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That's completely false. I'm willing to admit that BB has 99, 55, or 86 95% of the time.

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FYP; he doesn't have 2 pair. 2 pair would put in the second raise, but not a fourth. OK, MAYBE 97, if you hadn't had sevens instead of fives.

Kyro and KilgoreTrout are both right; the flop play is by far the worst part of the hand and this situation should never happen. But now that it has, your best bet is to get to showdown as cheap as possible. You are way ahead of UTG+1 (who probably has an overpair, A9, etc. - doesn't matter) but most likely way behind the BB with 55 the only hand you beat.

I'd call a decent turn bet (because if the board pairs, you probably take his stack; hope he doesn't have nines) and fold to a push.

Disclaimer: If this is $10 or under you may as well just push yourself because the third guy will call and give you odds to fill up, plus the increased chance BB's a donkey.

[kyro]

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Kryo -

Not picking on you, but I'd have to be 100% certain that he had 86... and even then I may still push! The reason for this is the restricted structure of the SNG. It simply doesn't reward "big laydowns."

As for running bad, beat up a 6 max game for a while. Does wonders for the ole ego.

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6max was the beginning of my downswing. Lost 5 buy-ins. Then tanked at the SNGs. I don't think that would be the best cure.

And I agree. I very rarely make "the big laydown." I think here I would puss out and do it though.

[2planka]

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I was going along with what you were saying until this statement. This is false. Very early in SNG tournaments, "big laydowns" are rewarded in ROI. It may not be rewarded in $/hr. But I don't think you were referring to $/hr.

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Yeah, you're right. I was just about to add that there's a point of no return around the 15BB range. Good catch.

[GtrHtr]

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What are your thoughts as soon as you see this flop?

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Scuba,

My thoughts were "BINGO!" and I'm getting action. The reaction is what threw me for a loop. Min bet, call, weak raise by me thinking I'll keep at least BB in the hand. Then lots of action and I'm thinking WTF? The call (t210) was weak and not usual for me but at the same time I'm trying to sort it all out in my head. I assumed that UTG+1 limped in with Ax or something along those lines but the BB action has me split between 99/86 or he's trying to steal the pot.

What I needed to do was stop and think before acting and not insta-call and then think.

[Scuba Chuck]

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It should be pretty obvious that BB has 86 here about 95% of the time.


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That's completely false. I'm willing to admit that BB has 99, 55, or 86 95% of the time.


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FYP; he doesn't have 2 pair. 2 pair would put in the second raise, but not a fourth. OK, MAYBE 97, if you hadn't had sevens instead of fives.

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Adanthar, I don't agree with your reasoning YET, and would like to discuss further. Let's review the betting first.

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SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 bets t40, MP2 calls t40, Hero raises to t80, SB folds, BB calls t80, UTG+1 raises to t120, MP2 folds, Hero calls t40, BB raises to t330, UTG+1 calls t210, Hero calls t210.


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BB checks, calls, and raises. All of the betting has been VERY minimal/smallish. No real threatening bets have been made until BB makes one. I think it's a mistake to not include 97 as one of the very likely hands.

His first call I think is where the debate begins. And maybe this is where I can learn something. Are you saying by just calling hero's bet, that villain does not have two pair? I'm trying to put myself into villains shoes. If I had 97 (two pair) on this flop, I'd likely want to check-raise. But when it returns back to me, with a bet and a raise, would I want to call?

All right. Thanks. You're right. No way I'm just calling with a marginal hand like two pair. That being said, Adanthar, if you had 97, what would be your play? I think after hero makes the t80 raise, I would reraise here with 97, and fold to anymore heat.

Thanks in advance,
Scuba

[Moonsugar]

I don't know the results of this hand but I think you are ahead here 50%+ v. BOTH OPPONENTS. And if you are behind the straight you have a redraw. Hell, you even have one v. 99! HAha.

I would play this by calling the big bet on the flop where you did and getting the most money in the pot on the turn. Keeping both of these guys in the pot keeps dead money in the pot and gives you better odds for the times you are behind.

[jcm4ccc]

It's hard to put the BB on anything, with such strange betting on the flop.

Look at the pattern of betting as it comes to the BB.

First time:
SB checked

Second time:
UTG+1 minraised
MP2 called
Hero minraised

Third time:
UTG+1 minraised
Hero called

Nobody is betting like they have anything. If I am the BB, I might assume that 2 pair is good. I might assume that tens or jacks are good. I might assume that A9o is good.

The betting is a complete mess, and I think it's a huge mistake to fold a set to this crap. Push it, live with the consequences.

[kyro]

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Nobody is betting like they have anything. If I am the BB, I might assume that 2 pair is good. I might assume that tens or jacks are good. I might assume that A9o is good.

The betting is a complete mess, and I think it's a huge mistake to fold a set to this crap. Push it, live with the consequences.

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Assuming JJ is good on this board with this action is a terrible, terrible assumption.

And do you really think people min-reraise with crap often? I realize this is an $11 (I think?) but even my idiot friends in my home game would know that A9 is way behind here.

[Jimbobobb]

Put yourself in BB's shoes. So far he's seen nobody make any really big moves on this flop. Ok someone min bet, that could literally mean anything. Alright another person min-raised, hooray they have top pair maybe. BB could be thinking that his overpair or two pair look pretty good here, and decides to wait til the turn and roll out his fancy slowplay of his 'monster', so he calls. Ok someone min-raised again, but they only min-raised, that means nothing. A lot of money has been put in the pot, I guess I'll make my move now. And they'll do this with MANY MANY MANY hands you beat. I think the main problem here is everyone is assuming this person is a solid player, because they themselves are solid players, and can't see players making these strange moves with all sorts of crap. Push the flop. Will better hands fold? heck no, but there are only two of those. Will worse hands call? Heck yes, and there are buttloads of those.

[jcm4ccc]

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Nobody is betting like they have anything. If I am the BB, I might assume that 2 pair is good. I might assume that tens or jacks are good. I might assume that A9o is good.

The betting is a complete mess, and I think it's a huge mistake to fold a set to this crap. Push it, live with the consequences.

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Assuming JJ is good on this board with this action is a terrible, terrible assumption.

And do you really think people min-reraise with crap often? I realize this is an $11 (I think?) but even my idiot friends in my home game would know that A9 is way behind here.

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Of course it's a terrible assumption. And the betting implies a bunch of terrible players.

There are a few situations in which I might fold a set on a ragged board. This ain't one of them.