20/40 hand

[gergery]

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Since button didn’t reraise you on the turn when the meaningless 2 hit,

The button did 3-bet the turn.

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My bad. Then check-call seems better than raising or check-raising. I would never fold this getting 17:1 against loose donks, so...

if you bet how often will you get called by a worse hand? not that often. maybe trips or weaker full.

if you bet how often will you get raised by a better hand?
while its unlikely they have this....always and it'll cost you an extra bet.

if you check, how often will they bet?
Fairly often, since the pot is very large, and many draws missed, so those hands have no way to win without betting. they also might think you have one of those hands and thus think you will fold a two pair type hand that might beat their totally missed 1-pair+draw.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't consider the turn raise to be for value against donkish opponents?

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mmcd - The turn raise seems rash. No, it's not a value raise against anybody. You have a mediocre two pair without much prospect of improving. As it turns out, the river card is very nice for you, but most river cards would not be.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[mmcd]

...without much prospect of improving


Prior to the guy in the middle calling 2 cold on the turn, how much value would you give to my 2nd nut low draw here?

What percentage of the time would I have to get the pot heads-up to make this raise +ev?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Prior to the guy in the middle calling 2 cold on the turn, how much value would you give to my 2nd nut low draw here?

[/ QUOTE ]

mmcd - Hard to say.

Trouble with drawing to and making 2nd nut low is sometimes you're stuck paying off the nut low when you make your draw.

2nd nut low draw is a whole lot better when it adds the possibility of scooping to a probable winning high.

For the sake of discussion, let's say a six, seven, or eight is worth half as much as it would be worth to a nut low draw.

A three is an out for a wheel (nut low) rather than an out for 2nd nut low.

I think the two missing deuces are probably scoopers on the river.

Non-spade treys will make a wheel which probably scoops, but may split with an opponent holding A4XX or 46XX. The three of spades makes a wheel but might also make an opponent a flush.

I do think because of the pot size you have odds to call a bet on the third betting round.

To raise, you have to be able to answer yes to one of the following two considerations:
• (1) Will the raise knock out an opponent who would beat you if not knocked out?
• (2) If the raise doesn't knock out an opponent who would beat you, is the fresh money going into the pot greater than the odds against making your hand?

If the answers to both questions are no, then I don't think you should raise.

The answer to the first question depends on your opponents and you know them better than I do.

The answer to the second question in the scenario you have painted, I believe, is "No."

[ QUOTE ]
What percentage of the time would I have to get the pot heads-up to make this raise +ev?

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I don't know. I am unable to put your opponents on cards here.

Will CO beat you for high if not knocked out? If so, does your check-raise have a good chance of knocking out CO? If your check-raise does knock out CO, will you beat Button for high?

If your check-raise does knock out CO, and if you beat Button for high, would you have also beaten CO for high?

You obviously give yourself a better chance to win a hand when you raise, since an opponent may throw away a winner. Will these opponents throw away winning hands often enough to justify raises with the weak hand you hold here?

I don't know. I don't think many of my opponents would. Maybe yours are different.

Buzz