I still find it hard to believe...

[LinusKS]

The actual win rate of 2+2 players is likely to be much worse than you might think.

First of all, there's a lot of people coming through here. The ones who have had good results, however, are the ones who're most likely to stop and post about them. Plus, the better the results, the more likely they are to post.

Second, some people are going to have a series of games where they're up, and then also a series where they're down.

If they're up $1000 at Party Poker, but down $750 at Absolute, they'll post about PP, but not AP. If they're down overall on sng's, but pick up a 40% ROI on a 100-game challenge, they'll post the 100-game challenge.

Third, there's bound to be a certain amount of hinkiness in the data. There's a tendency to want to turn off your computer and leave the house after a bad session - after a good session, you want to plug all your new numbers into your spreadsheets, to see how much you've improved.

Finally, some people have a tendency to lie. While I'm sure 2+2ers are at least as honest as the general public, that's actually not saying all that much. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Cashcow]

I agree, I would have to say a very large percentage (maybe 95%+) never read a book, chat about poker or have any desire to get any better. For the 5% or so that do try to learn more, and don't believe that "any hand can win" there will never be a shortage of cash to take from the fish.

[ctv1116]

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My PT database has a 40/60 split of winners/losers, FWIW.

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That's about what everyone reports here, but unless you've been playing with the same players for a lot of the time, these only represent short term numbers.

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Wouldn't everyone reporting the same thing make it a large sample?

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No, because everyone has small samples on the other players. In my database, I probably have 20-200 hands on about 95% of the players. Let's just say for the sake of argument that all 95% of the players are -1BB/100 losers with SD of 15BB/100 hands. So if each player plays 100 hands, what % of them will be up, and what % will be down, given the distribution. I'd say its 45/55 winners to losers, even though in reality ALL of the players are long-term losers, by definition.

[Ian J]

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The actual win rate of 2+2 players is likely to be much worse than you might think.


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I have to agree here wholeheartedly. Playing the 10/20 game at Party last week, a person sat down who I know to be a 2+2er and open limped in MP w/ J8s, then bet and called a raise in a 3 way pot on a K Q 9 rainbow flop. There is absolutely no way that this can be good poker. Just because someone is posting here does not mean that they are a winning player. They may win for a bit, but they may not be winners in the long run.