suited connector odds

rybones · #1 09-28-2005, 12:45 PM

In sng play the starting stacks are so small and the blinds rise so quickly that it is rarely wise to play drawing hands. The common advice is to avoid connectors, But then it is also said playing small and medium pairs is great as long you you fold when you don't hit your set. I happen to think the same type of logic should be applied to connectors. Just like a set, they are great for getting paid off when you really hit a flop. That said I do not have the math to prove this to myself. Alas, my question: what are the odds of suited connectors hitting two pair, or a full house, or a straight, or a flush. Note, I am looking for the combinded odds of hitting anyone of these hands. As a side question, am I right that a pair improving to a set on the flop is 8:1?

Thanks in advance to anyone who has the answer.

Ryan

LetYouDown · #2 09-28-2005, 01:39 PM

This is like the new 3 doors problem. Search function is your friend. Check out this post, which links to another post about the exact same topic.

rybones · #3 09-28-2005, 06:08 PM

Thank you for the link. However, the problem with that link and the other information I have found is that is always includes hitting 4 to a flush or a str8. In an sng, it is rarely wise to chase a draw. Someone may argue that you should then push your draw; however, in low limit you will get called too often to make this profitable. What I need is either the odds or someone to tell me how to do the calculation.

Anyone?

Ryan

#4 09-28-2005, 06:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What I need is either the odds or someone to tell me how to do the calculation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like: "Please someone, teach me how to use my brain."

You can't do any math or are you just lazy?

rybones · #5 09-28-2005, 07:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You can't do any math or are you just lazy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually no I really can't "do" math. I read the post the other guy linked to and the math made sense -- kind of -- but not to a point where I could figure out the equations to calculate the made str8 and flush hands and then combine those with the 2 pair, 3 of a kind, and full house odds.

Plus, I thought the forum was exactly for "teaching people how to use their brains." A person canot do what they do not know until they are taught.

Thanks for the kindness

Ryan

BruceZ · #6 09-28-2005, 07:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can't do any math or are you just lazy?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually no I really can't "do" math. I read the post the other guy linked to and the math made sense -- kind of -- but not to a point where I could figure out the equations to calculate the made str8 and flush hands and then combine those with the 2 pair, 3 of a kind, and full house odds.

Plus, I thought the forum was exactly for "teaching people how to use their brains." A person canot do what they do not know until they are taught.

Thanks for the kindness

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't make a straight or a flush and at the same time make 2-pair, trips, or a full house, so you can just add the corresponding probabilities from this post. The 3.47% for 2-pair or trips includes full houses and quads.

subzero · #7 09-29-2005, 12:10 PM

suited connector (like 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]) will flop...

straight-flush: 4/19600
quads: 2/19600
full house: 18/19600
flush (without straight-flush): 161/19600
straight (without straight-flush): 252/19600
trips (without full house): 264/19600

Add all the probabilities: (4 + 2 + 18 + 161 + 252 + 264) / 19600 = 701/19600 = .035765 or 3.5765% or about 27:1 against.

#8 09-29-2005, 06:31 PM

It really seems like you ought to include some of the stronger draws such as:
Flush Draw + OESD + Pair
Flush Draw + OESD/Double Gutshot
Flush Draw + ISD + Pair
Flush Draw + 3Straight + Pair
OESD+Pair+BD Flush Draw

rybones · #9 09-29-2005, 11:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It really seems like you ought to include some of the stronger draws such as:
Flush Draw + OESD + Pair
Flush Draw + OESD/Double Gutshot
Flush Draw + ISD + Pair
Flush Draw + 3Straight + Pair
OESD+Pair+BD Flush Draw

[/ QUOTE ]

I quite agree, but how the hell to I figure those odds out and then how do I add them to the other odds? See, if I were a math person this would be no problem. If there is anyone who can add these hand odds to the ones others have given I would really appreciated it. That said when figuring these odds out, how do you account for hand possibilites that meet these criteria, but were already figured in as part of the made hand odds? does that make sense?

Ryan

Innocentius · #10 09-30-2005, 05:31 AM

I think that the fundamental difference between a pocket pair and suited connectors is that with the pair, you are much more likely to have a strong made hand on the flop (that is, a set). The normal way of winning with connectors is getting a strong draw on the flop, which hopefully comes in on the turn or river. Problem is, in SnGs you often cannot afford to draw on the flop, or will simply face bets that are too large to call.