NHL thought / bet for tonight

[TheRake]

I didn't say "always" and I also said it was my impression.

When I cap a game to try and find a fair line more times than not my dog line is closer to what the books have on the game.

When you look at the consensus picks on wagerline they are almost always on the favorites. To me it makes sense that the books would tilt the juice that way because of this.

[craig r]

Fair enough. So, is there a way to actually figure out what % is on the dog and what % is on the fav for a 10 cent line? 20 cents? There has to be a way to theoretically figure it out.

craig

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Well glad I stuck with my gut feeling on that one. Went with LA against everyones opinion. Working on a nice 4-0 night if Edmonton can pull one out. Got a wild one going in Vancouver right now.

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You weren't against everyone. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I got +150 late.
Considering the kings were without their two best centers (conroy,belanger), I don't think there was that much value. what tipped it for me was Garon v. 'Suave'.
Had edm/van over, so that was done after the 1st.

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I honestly believe you can't beat the books if you are always on the favorites. It's not to say there aren't times when the favorite is the way to go. But just because you were on the winning side one night doesn't necesarily mean you were on the right side. The idea is to try and find "live dogs". Tonight I had LA as a -102 favorite so getting +131 looks like a huge overlay for me. Even if my numbers are off a little I have room for error. I also had Edmonton as a +112 dog, but I picked them up at +140 so I had some nice wiggle room on that one too. It doesn't always work out the way it did tonight, but I can win less than 50% of my picks and still make money.

The other thing to watch is that the juice is usually on the favorites because that is the way the public bets. So when you bet favorites you are already losing $.10 (give or take)in value on your pick. That's my impression anyway [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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I believe you are correct. Hockey can be quite situational, with travel, injuries, matchups making for some very live dogs. It also seems to me that home ice is over-rated.
Betting the + seems to be the way to go.

[TheRake]

Uggg I can't believe I am still awake, but I can't stop thinking about this now [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Fair enough. So, is there a way to actually figure out what % is on the dog and what % is on the fav for a 10 cent line? 20 cents? There has to be a way to theoretically figure it out.

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I don't think there is. So let me put it another way.

The closest way I can explain this is that the books don't know exactly how much action they are going to get on each side of a line. What they do know is that they will get more action on the favorite most of the time. So by adding the juice on that side of the line they are giving the square gamblers (which is the majority) the worst of it. Meaning when the squares win they will win less than they should and when they lose they will lose more than they should. In the meantime when the sharp side wins they win just about what they should win (if their line is accurate). The reason why you can find value on the favorite sometimes is because the lines aren't always accurate.

There is no way they can get even betting on both sides of the line because 1 team is usually the clear favorite and they can't do point spreads because the scores aren't high enough.

Also it seems it is much easier to hide the juice on a ML than it is when you are using point spreads.

It would be nice if MrBaseball or Whipsaw would chime in on this because betting baseball is much the same in this regard. I'm sure they know more about this than I do.

[craig r]

Well, I think the best way to start would be to find games with no edge. For example, if the "true" odds of a favorite winning is -/+140 (41.7), we might see a line of -150/+130. Neither side is a good bet obviously. The books will have an edge no matter what side people take. Even if they ended up super lopsided on one side, they will win money in the long run. In my example, the juice is 10 cents from a fair price. But you are thinking if the line was actually -150/+130 it is probably closer to a true line of 135, right? Obviously, neither side is good to bet, but if forced to bet, you would be better off taking the +130. I cannot say that you are definitely wrong, but from what I have understood, it is probably closer to the median (which is also why 20 cent lines suck, because it makes it tough to find a "true" rogue line.

I would really like Tech, DougOzzzz, and/or Sublime reply. That isn't a bash on Whipsaw and Mr.Baseball; they just don't look at everything as mathematical as Tech, Doug, and Sublime.

craig

also, go to sleep. No matter how long you stay up you will not be right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Well glad I stuck with my gut feeling on that one. Went with LA against everyones opinion. Working on a nice 4-0 night if Edmonton can pull one out. Got a wild one going in Vancouver right now.

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Nicely done. I'll admit I was wrong. You should post the bets you make so we can follow in your success.

I rarely bet favorites. I find it's usually too much juice to lay down...especially in hockey where anything can happen on any given night. Of the 38 straight bets I've laid over the last couple months, only 10 were on favorites.