Checkin' that scare card: Party 5/10

[noir]

UTG stats 18.6/11.5/2.4 (large number of hands)
BB stats 41/1.9/.55 (hands only from present table)

UTG is pretty new to the table and nothing of note has gone down with him.

BB is doing what he does. Calling.




Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

River: (12 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

Final Pot: 12 BB

I enjoy collecting bets, especially in thin situations. I just thought it was prudent not to walk the wire here.

So here's why, let me know if you dig it: UTG raised preflop and I now know he's got that jack. I doubt he's got a king because two of those boys are in my pocket. So that only leaves him with QJ as a hand that I'm ahead of and might obtain a bet. Might. Especially because that scare card is going to be causing him worry too. Lastly, his play indicates that he is frugal.

The big blind now, what can we say? Sure, he loves calling, but I think even this board could prevent him from doing his favorite thing - that is, unless he has me beat.

On the other hand, I've got that big fat heart in my hand, so the flush is less likely. Plus, the big blind calls just so much, and utg may call based on size of the pot, fear of losing, frustration.

[Spartan1983]

I think I bet/fold most of the time. I think, at least for me, one of those situations where part of the time I bet the other part I check/ call. Kind of a "what does my gut tell me to do here".

[jt1]

looks like a bet/fold except against an aggro

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]


So here's why, let me know if you dig it: UTG raised preflop and I now know he's got that jack. I doubt he's got a king because two of those boys are in my pocket. So that only leaves him with QJ as a hand that I'm ahead of and might obtain a bet. Might. Especially because that scare card is going to be causing him worry too. Lastly, his play indicates that he is frugal.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is too tight. If you were playing me you could be up against AJ, QQ, QJ, JTs, KT, K9s, A9, 2 hearts, KQ, KJ. I'm obviously not calling with a ton of these hands but I don't think me being in the hand should stop you from getting value from the player in between.

Now I know this guy is tighter than I am, but I still think QJ/KJ/AJ is just too tight a range.

Krishan

[winky51]

well I thought of all the situations. The tighty could have AJ or e could have a TT, maybe KQo. But I do not believe he has a set.

So

If you are check calling here might as well bet/fold. You have a calling station that will probably call with many hands at this point. I don't think the TAG has a monster and he won't raise that board on the end unless he has maybe 2 pair. But then again if I had AJ I would call to induce the poor player to call. If you had the flush I lose the least and if you are betting Ak I win the most because the Poor player will probably call also. I make the same money. now if I raise you have the flush i lose 2 and the fish folds unless he has both of us beat. If the poor player has the flush he will raise and you can fold for 1 bet. Either way its 1 bet check call or bet/fold.

Only when the TAG has AJ (bets) and the fish has a flush will checking work best because there will be a bet and raise probably. This possibility is less than the fish calling with a marginal hand IMO. So bet and fold if raised. Only a flush will raise here.

I hope this all made sense.

I think what you did was prudent. You have a small sample size of your opponents tendencies. If I bet in this situation, I have a hard time not calling one more bet if there's a raise. I don't see a bluff raise too far out of the realm of possibilities.

The river play is missing from the hand.

How do you know he's got that jack? From his flop raise/call and his loose PFR/AF stats, he could have played that way with 99-QQ, or AJ-A9. Maybe QJs. (A real, non-stat read would tell you if he's capable of a bluff/semi-bluff to put you off overcards, which would open up his range even more.) With his aggression over a large number of hands, I'd see him capping the flop with 99, JJ or AJ, especially JJ since BB is obviously coming along for the ride.

After the turn I toss 99 and JJ (unless he's a devious fella) and have him calling down with everything else in his range. The A adds back in A9 as something to worry about, but I still think you beat most of his range here. BB is more worrisome, but as you say, he could have anything, so I'm not going to fear the flush monster.

I'm making the value bet.

I think the river is a bet/fold, TT,QQ,KK,KJ, etc are calling hopefully and nothing short of AJ or a flush is raising (so we can fold).