Horrible Call by Villain?

[QTip]

This guy seems like he's half decent at the game. He's like 20/8/2.5 and has played a decent game since I've been sitting. I'm playing well, but showing down a lot of loosers on drawouts. Of course, I don't know if he's checking his hand history to see it or not. He's shown that he will fold a hand on the turn. I've seen him do it even after he capped PF.

Anyway, is there any reason at all for him to call this turn? Just checking because it makes no sense to me.

I limp UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Villian raises.

Everyone folds, I call.

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check planning to check/raise because I think there's a decent chance he has overcards and will dump his hand.

He bets, I raise, he calls.

So far, I like it and I'm hoping for a rag or the board to pair to get him out. The only other thing I'm thinking is that he has a big pair and is planning to pop me on the turn.

Turn: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I love the card and bet, he calls.

???? All I can think of at this point is that he has a big pair and was planning on popping me on the turn but is now scared. I'm done with this hand and plan on check/folding the river.

River: K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check. He checks and shows me A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

What's with the turn call? Is there something I'm missing? I just want to make sure because I'm folding that turn almost every time.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

isn't at all possible that he thinks your f.o.s. and even if he is behind he may have 6 outs?

[NickRegino]

limping utg with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is too weak as seen, you will most likely get raised making the hand not very profitable to be played from EP.

[Octopus]

What hands would you play this way?

Let's say KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, J9s, 88-22 and (apparently) A9s-A2s.

Against that range of hands he has equity of about 34.5%. If you would only make this play with A9s-A2s half the time (or if you only play A7s+ UTG) then his equity goes to about 26%. If he knows that you will check the hands he beats on the river (that is, can he fold to a bet UI), then I think the call is OK.

Interesting hand.

[Aces McGee]

What CDC said. Particularly when the board pairs on the turn.

-McGee

[flair1239]

If he is observant or has PT stats on you, then he can assume that you are a "Reasonable" player.

Your limp and no reraise PF, lets hime rule out AA-TT. If he thinks you are reasonale he can also rule out AK, AQ, AJ, AT (You would probably raise ATs and muck AT). HE can be fairly comfortable with the idea that you do not have KTo, Qto, JTo. IF he thinks you are tight he can also rule out QTs from UTG. So really that only leaves KTs and JTs (He is holding a Jack).

If I were him and had like a 17-21/9-13/2-3 snapshot of you over say 25-50 hands. A PP Below TT would be high on my list of hand ranges. Also the fact that I have a Jack and there are (2)Tens out, would make me demphasis JTs. Not alot of tight player play QTs from this spot. So I would be worried out KTs, set, or PP. Not sure I would call the turn either, but it would not be an automuck for me HU against a player I considered tight and aggressive.

But anyway, your play is consistent with a Small-mid PP.

[shant]

I think it has to do with a TAG limping UTG, then checkraising this flop. I think this comes across as FOS a lot of times, and I will mix it up in situations like this against TAGs when it is HU. Sometimes I will raise the turn with his hand to see if the TAG is FOS and to get a free showdown. Calling wasn't so bad either as if you have nothing, or have an 8 or lower PP and he misses his 6 outs, you still will likely check the river. The times you were FOS, his A-high is good.

So, no, it wasn't a terrible turn call if he knew what your image was and put you on a range of hands. Obviously, we don't know if he thought about any of this.

[Octopus]

What percentage of the time should we bet this river, given our read on villain? What if the river were a blank?

[LinusKS]

He knows you don't have a real hand, because if you did, you'd c/r the turn, not the flop.

That leaves exactly AT, which isn't all that likely, and even more unlikely after the board pairs.

He can't bet the river, because you might very well have a K, and he has A high.

I would have played the same way.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
What percentage of the time should we bet this river, given our read on villain? What if the river were a blank?

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my next question.