ace high steal attempt #2, as per requeste un trix

[TStoneMBD]

villain is 29/19/2.5 after 4061 hands.
other relevant stats:
wsd=42. w$sd=52. fbbs 60. checkraise 10. attsb 42. BB/100 5.29.

mistake #1 imo was trying to steal his blinds in the first place. no reason to get involved with a player who may very well be top notch with such garbage.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds.

Final Pot: 5.20 BB

[Justin A]

Happy birthday and nice hand.

[J.R.]

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fbbs 60.

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assume he defends more against you, and its headup, so lets say he calls 50% of the time (he may calls more often, maybe 55 or so % of the time).

so half of the time you win .7 BBs,

and half of the time you have A2o against the top 50% or so of hands.
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 48.2200 % [ 00.45 00.03 ] { A2o }
Hand 2: 51.7800 % [ 00.48 00.03 ] { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K4s, QJs-Q6s, JTs-J7s, T9s-T7s, 98s-96s, 87s-86s, 76s-75s, 65s-64s, 54s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K6o, QJo-Q8o, JTo-J8o, T9o-T8o, 98o-96o, 87o-86o, 76o-75o, 65o }
</pre><hr />

you have about 50% equity when he calls in a 2 BB pot, plus you have initiative and position. he may not call exactly like this but it will be close to it.

sure he will check-raise and bluff and 3-bet preflop, but you's need to average almost .7 BB loss when he calls for the play to be breakeven, and I can't imagien you couldn't play A2o close to breakeven when he calls regardless of how well he plays. Your hand is just better than so many of the 50% of hands or so he is calling with. stuff like T8s maybe be tough to play, but you have an A headsup.

raising hands like this also provides cover for other hands and shows him you don't fear him.


I like the way you played this. happy birthday and keep posting well.

[Lmn55d]

If the turn didn't give you a gutshot, would you still have taken the free card on the turn? Call river if he bets? Against unknowns I think I often just call down to river...is this bad? Should I be trying to get to showdown cheaper in these situations?

[TStoneMBD]

i dont agree with the whole preflop equity arguement with hands like this. i prefer having a hand like 98s when opening from the button than a hand like A2o even though its preflop equity is worse. postflop implied/reverse implied odds are not good with A2o, because its unlikely that he will pay me off when i flop an ace, will extract 1.5BBs out of me when he flops a pair and i take ace high to showdown unimproved, and extract alot of value out of me when he also has an ace, or a stronger hand than a pair of aces and an ace flops.

also, if this player is a good player, then he may have good number of stats on me. he will see that my attsb is 42%, which means that he is certainly not going to fold 50% of his hands to my button raise, at least he shouldn't. he will also 3bet me frequently, which puts me in a position that i dont know how to deal with postflop.

[TStoneMBD]

if you just call down in these situations, you are committed to the showdown regardless of what falls. what if the turn brings a jack and the river a queen? you still have to call. this leads to reverse implied odds because your opponent will be able to value bet you accordingly while shutting down while bluffing. your equity in the hand is very small and i would advise just calling the flop and folding the turn if you are going to just call down without showing strength anywhere. by raising and betting the turn, you may get him to fold a hand that is better than yours, or a hand that has enough equity to chase (such as a gutshot with overcards to your 2).

if the gutshot didnt fall, i would have bet and checked the river, not putting anymore money in. however, since the gutshot fell and the villain has such a high checkraise stat, i dont feel comfortable doing this. i will be checkraised a good percentage of the time and it will cost me extra money.

i was planning on calling the river bet, but i dont like it. reads help in this situation. many players will automatically bet the river regardless of their holding, while many players will never bluff the river but only bet for value. in this situation i didnt have any reads, so by calling at least i get a note on the guy even though my position sucks. at least the line i took only costed me 2BBs, instead of 2.5.

[J.R.]

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which means that he is certainly not going to fold 50% of his hands to my button raise, at least he shouldn't.

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do you think he fold 40%, 30%? That makes having an A in position more valuable.


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i dont agree with the whole preflop equity arguement with hands like this

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I think you'll have to play fairly bad postflop when he doesn't fold preflop to lose money with this hand. just don't get too frisky when he calls.

[stripsqueez]

i open raise A2o on the button even if god is in the BB

i agree that 98s can be a more attractive proposition post flop but an ace is an ace - i dont count this as stealing

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Dov]

[ QUOTE ]
i open raise A2o on the button even if god is in the BB

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You may want to work on game selection a little. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
villain is 29/19/2.5 after 4061 hands.
other relevant stats:
wsd=42. w$sd=52. fbbs 60. checkraise 10. attsb 42. BB/100 5.29.

mistake #1 imo was trying to steal his blinds in the first place.


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Mistake #2 is betting the river. Is he going to call with anything that you beat? Do you think he's going to fold any better hands? Both seem unlikely.

Take the free showdown. Being able to show down a hand like this for free is one of the facets of positional advantage.