How's Your Turn Play? - Page 7

VoraciousReader · #61 10-26-2005, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Down with the devil!
1. If villain holds a worse hand in this situation, I'd be impressed. Eight high isn't all that tough to beat. If he folds, it was almost certainly with a better hand.
2. Ah, betting just to "know where we stand." I don't think this warrants any more words than EV > info.
3. Mmmmm, hand reading...
I know you're not actively thinking any of this, but you're going to have to do a better job advocating satanic ways.

[/ QUOTE ]

This cracked me up. Made me picture Chewbacca chasing Paxosmotic's avatar while P's avatar flees at top speed, a forgotten pitchfork dangling from one hand.

But to further elaborate on 2: This is a hand where I'm not finding out if we're ahead or behind until showdown. And I'm comfortable with that.

#62 10-26-2005, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What fold equity do we have against a better hand on this board? If we have the best hand, why do we want the villain folding? If the villain has a better hand, then I'd rather find out for one bet at showdown, rather than no showdown costing us up to two bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I think I phrased my thoughts wrong. What I meant to say is that I'd rather just take the pot now even if it means that there's little chance the opponent will fold.

If he just calls, we can just check behind for the same amount of bets and still get a showdown...if you don't want to invest any more money into the pot.

Paxosmotic · #63 10-26-2005, 03:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing which makes me question the fact we're behind is that Brad said 3bet here

[/ QUOTE ]
Appeal to authority fallacy alert. Play poker yourself. If you think it's a fold, say it's a fold and why.

Shillx · #64 10-26-2005, 03:50 PM

The only thing which makes me question the fact we're behind is that Brad said 3bet here ... otherwise I'm trying to get to showdown cheaply and calling down from here.

I made some bad assumptions about what the villian might be holding here. I actually thought that the 3-bet would have some fold equity, but that seems doubtful now. It looks like the only hands that will fold are those that are drawing dead against us. If he will fold a gutshot I like a 3-bet here (assuming he won't bet it on the river when he misses). The fact that he will probably bet it again on the end makes calling a better play (or any busted draw for that matter). Getting that last raise in is only critical against players like myself who usually give up on a bricked river. Most people river bluff way more then game theory would suggest, and even more so in spots such as this one.

Brad

detruncate · #65 10-26-2005, 05:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What fold equity do we have against a better hand on this board? If we have the best hand, why do we want the villain folding? If the villain has a better hand, then I'd rather find out for one bet at showdown, rather than no showdown costing us up to two bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right. I think I phrased my thoughts wrong. What I meant to say is that I'd rather just take the pot now even if it means that there's little chance the opponent will fold.

If he just calls, we can just check behind for the same amount of bets and still get a showdown...if you don't want to invest any more money into the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you want to take the pot down now rather than later? What possible difference does waiting make unless you're planning to value bet both streets? Are you planning to value bet both streets vs a TAG? How do you react to a turn c/r? Which line is most likely to result it Villain putting in more chips when behind + you getting to showdown?

K-mac · #66 10-26-2005, 05:49 PM

Grunching via Wookie's challenge

Hand 1: I am torn here. If UTG+1 is a TAG I do not think he is limping in here with King low card. I say keep the lead and bet out again.

Hand 2: With no one showing any strength in front of me i think i would raise with my 8's on the button.
Either way after MP2 Checks i think i check here. I check because the pot is small. Us checking would probably indicate weakness and maybe get him to bet the river (in which case i would call).

Hand 3: I have no clue. I am not sure about 3-betting here because UTG+2 limped in preflop, and he could have hit two pair when the A hits. I dont think a set of 9's is likely because I would imagine that he would have raised PF. Because he came alive when the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hit i think i would just call here.

#67 10-26-2005, 06:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you want to take the pot down now rather than later? What possible difference does waiting make unless you're planning to value bet both streets? Are you planning to value bet both streets vs a TAG? How do you react to a turn c/r? Which line is most likely to result it Villain putting in more chips when behind + you getting to showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

I concede the bet/fold line. The more that I think about it, it seems better to check behind and call a river bet (or bet if checked to). (As a side note, I wonder what we would do if we get river check/raised...but I doubt that would happen if the check on the turn was a failed check/raise attempt.)

The only worse hands that will call hands that paired the K or T or have a bigger diamond than our 8. A paint diamond would oftentimes raise.

Calling/betting the river costs the same and we get a showdown.

I think that my aggressiveness gets the best of me sometimes. Like I said in my blind post to this thread, I'm an "uber-LAG." [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Hey, lesson learned. heh

aces_dad · #68 10-26-2005, 06:13 PM

No I am advocating a call down after the turn c/r against this opponent.

Typically against straightforward TAG's our TPTK is losing to a c/r on the turn. Losing enough to fold? No, our hand is strong enough to see a showdown here but I do not want to 3bet and then see it capped and call one more on the river to get there.

Hence I am advocating calling down after the turn c/r on this hand. My reference to Brad was (as you mention) a CYA type comment because I thought I must be overlooking possible holdings that villian has. These possible holdings make me want to call down but, I don't think we're ahead enough here to three bet.

Shillx · #69 10-26-2005, 06:27 PM

Here is my theory behind 4 flushed boards. Say that the board is K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as it was in the previous hand.

1) Don't bet a flush unless you have the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. There are exceptions to this, but the general rule against average to good players is that you should check any other flush (both in and out of position). Why?

a) You avoid getting raised or check/raised by the nuts (or as a bluff). Also no better flush will fold in this spot.
b) You induce a bluff on the river or a call on the river.
c) If your hand is good it will almost never get outdrawn. If you are beat, you are drawing dead.

This is even more important when the pot is multiway and you are out of position. It is also important when it is HU as well. You should check/call on 4th with the inention of betting right out on 5th no matter what card hits. So if your opponent has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the hand that was given, he should check (intend to call) the turn and then lead right out on the river. The problem with betting the turn (and intending to showdown if he calls) is that you will get donked by a hand everytime. So it is impossible to bet the turn with the intention of checking behind when you have the worst hand. You will sometimes have a better hand when he donks (he might do it with the 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]), but you should always bet for value with a flush when he checks the river (no matter if you check the turn or not).

2) If you don't have a flush, put your money in on 4th street if you intend to get involved. People will not check/call with the inention of betting the river with nothing since it is too costly. So do your bluffing and your betting with the nuts on 4th street. It makes no difference how many people are in the pot...just come right out betting with the nuts (obviously don't try and bluff through 4 others). Remember that a 4 flush board is an action killer so don't worry about being in a spot where people will rarely raise you (it does no good for him to raise when you are either betting nothing or the nuts). He still has a tough decision to call down or fold since there is some chance that you are bluffing.

3) If you have nothing and decide to check/fold the turn OOP, sometimes bluff the river if it goes through. Likewise you should bet the river at times in position when it goes check/check on the turn and he checks again on the river. Anyone with half a brain will bet a flush on the end, so betting is a good way to pick up the pot. He doesn't know that you don't have a flush since you will be checking behind on the turn and betting the river with a flush as well.

Brad

Edit for diction

Paxosmotic · #70 10-26-2005, 07:40 PM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: (4 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, SB folds.

Turn: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero...

Bets. If your opponent was calling your flop bet with top pair, then you will hear about it now on the expensive street when he raises. But if your opponent did not have top pair on the flop, he might fold, fearing that you have made trips. Checking would be bad against one opponent, because you are telling him that you are drawing, and he will know to stay with you. It is a lot harder to bluff the river successfully if you check the turn.

In summarium : Fold equity

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: (4.5 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero...

Checks. You have a flush. If your opponent doesn't have a flush, he will fold if you bet. This does not help you if he doesn't have any outs. If your flush is good now, it will be just as good at the river. With two pair or a set, the opponent likely would have shown strength before now by either betting or raising on the flop or betting the turn. Check, and plan on calling if he bets at the river. Your check might even induce him to bluff on the end.

In summarium : WA/WB (so to speak)

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (9.5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, CO folds, Button folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero...

Folds. When you get raised on the turn, you are almost always beat when having one pair. (On occasion, you are up against a tricky player who likes to semi-bluff draws on the expensive street.) There are 8.75 bets in the pot and it costs you 1 to call. If your opponent is raising on aces-up, then the number of outs you have depends on his second pair. With aces over nines, you have three outs (the kings). With aces over sevens, you have six outs (kings and nines). With aces over treys, you have nine outs (any king, nine, or seven). So one might conclude that on average you have about six outs, which is a 7-to-1 shot, and therefore you have a call. However, if your opponent does have two pair, you do not know which two they are, and thus may lose additional money on the river (ie if you river a 9 for two pair, which fills him up). Furthermore, your opponent may have a set, in which case you are drawing dead. Since he cold called your preflop raise, he is more likely to have done this with 99, 77, 33, or A9 than any other holding. In this hand, narrowing villain down to A9s, A7s, A3s, 99, 77, and 33 reduces our equity to 4.72%, well below what is required to see the river. Even if we add any Ace-King to his holdings, since we're drawing to a chop we don't have odds to see the river.

In summarium : When implied odds aren't nearly as strong as you'd think.