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#61
07-06-2005, 08:54 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
I agree. Things went very well for the OP in this hand.
He flopped a boat against (apparently) two flushes. It doesn't get much better than that. I think the 20BB pot is closer to the maximum he'd expect to get, not the the average. I haven't done the math, but if you consider his average set pot value at closer to 15 or 16 BBs, rather than twenty, I suspect any EV will disappear. [ QUOTE ] take two things in consideration: -hero will put in more than 33% of the money in the pot on average if he stays to the end since it is not sure that both opponents stay to the end. -if hero is beat with a set or better, someone else must have an extremely strong hand. that means the average pot when he is beaten should be higher than when his hand is good. [/ QUOTE ] 
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#62
07-06-2005, 08:54 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
-hero will put in more than 33% of the money in the pot on average if he stays to the end since it is not sure that both opponents stay to the end. [/ QUOTE ] Excellent point. I'm just not sure if the original poster will be able to grasp this concept. Adam
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#63
07-06-2005, 09:19 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 2. if everybody tells you that you are wrong it is pretty obvious that you are. [/ QUOTE ] Nonsense. If nobody can explain why, most likely it's because they can't. And if they can't, there's no reason to assume they're right, no matter how many of them there are. [/ QUOTE ] yes, "If nobody can explain why, most likely it's because they can't." that's undoubtedly true. but it doesn't fit the situation since many poster gave a reasoning.
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#64
07-06-2005, 09:23 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
I agree. Things went very well for the OP in this hand. He flopped a boat against (apparently) two flushes. It doesn't get much better than that. I think the 20BB pot is closer to the maximum he'd expect to get, not the the average. I haven't done the math, but if you consider his average set pot value at closer to 15 or 16 BBs, rather than twenty, I suspect any EV will disappear. [ QUOTE ] take two things in consideration: -hero will put in more than 33% of the money in the pot on average if he stays to the end since it is not sure that both opponents stay to the end. -if hero is beat with a set or better, someone else must have an extremely strong hand. that means the average pot when he is beaten should be higher than when his hand is good. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] according to my calculations, with an average pot of 20 BB (highly unrealistic) the cold call would be marginal. with 15 BB (still too high) it would be a clear fold.
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#65
07-06-2005, 09:24 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] -hero will put in more than 33% of the money in the pot on average if he stays to the end since it is not sure that both opponents stay to the end. [/ QUOTE ] Excellent point. I'm just not sure if the original poster will be able to grasp this concept. Adam [/ QUOTE ] dunno. it's somewhat sophisticated...
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#66
07-06-2005, 09:29 PM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
The first good explanation I saw was Hamlet's.
The OP's play was interesting. Honestly, I probably wouldn't have thought of it, until he explained it. I think it's probably a long run loser, but it's not terrible. The insults to explanations ratio had to be at least 5:1. Which says more about the forum than the poster.
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#67
07-07-2005, 06:56 AM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
The first good explanation I saw was Hamlet's. The OP's play was interesting. Honestly, I probably wouldn't have thought of it, until he explained it. I think it's probably a long run loser, but it's not terrible. The insults to explanations ratio had to be at least 5:1. Which says more about the forum than the poster. [/ QUOTE ] i must have missed most of the insults. do you count writing the play was terrible as an insult after getting asked for it?
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#68
07-07-2005, 08:13 AM
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Re: Is this cold call acceptable, marginal, or terrible
[ QUOTE ]
but you don't have to take small advantages versus a maniac, he will give you plaenty of opportunities to outplay him when you have a very large edge. [/ QUOTE ] This sounds like a paraphrase of the advice that Mike Caro gives in the 7cs chapter of s/s. The thing is... if you have the financial and emotional ability to deal with the variance, there's no reason not to push small edges, too. The worst case scenario is that the maniac gets more chips, and is able to stay in business that much longer. This isn't a bad situation, as most players play very poorly with a maniac at the table. (And the maniacs chips are always in play) That being said, I fold this one pre-flop, as I don't see an edge... this just looks like a "gambool" play to me. Fun to do, but not profitable. Save this move for your drunken home game.
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